Blindly go long below $80K? The $BTC discussion page is in an uproar today—but don’t rush to jump in.
The bulls’ case is all over the discussion page:
The doji crowd says the daily charts for all three major coins have formed dojis. After a string of declines, they see this as a signal of a trend reversal, and have even mapped out a scenario: squeeze the shorts before the rate decision, then dump again late Thursday night to liquidate the longs, before surging past $90,000. Their worst-case target is $75,000, and they say anything below $80K is a buy.
The range traders are more specific: the current price is $80,365, with resistance at $81,500 and support at $79,200. The price has been pushed down to $79,200 three times, and buyers have stepped in each time. Funding rates are hovering around zero, with both bulls and bears holding their breath. If the price holds above $81,500 on strong volume on the 4-hour chart, they’re eyeing $83,500.
The bullish-divergence camp adds: there’s bullish divergence on the hourly chart. As long as $79,200 holds, the thesis remains intact. They suggest $79,000 as a reference for a stop-loss. If rates aren’t raised in the early hours of October 29, the price could rebound and test $82,000–$83,000.
The bears’ case comes from the same discussion page:
Each pre-meeting rebound has been weaker than the last. One post draws on the pattern of sharp drops at every rate decision and sees a low near $75,000 next week.
Yesterday’s move already caught traders out: the price plunged below $80,000 intraday, bottoming at just over $79,100. Two large Hyperliquid traders had a combined $8.05 million in long positions liquidated in a cascade, losing about $278,000. The price climbed back above $80,000 a few hours later, but those liquidations had already taken their toll.
The move on October 24 was even harsher: within an hour of dropping below $80,000, about $219 million in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated.
And two whales that had been dormant for about three years just transferred a combined 2,571 coins—worth roughly $206.5 million—into an institutional custody channel. A transfer doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate sell-off, but with that much sitting near $80,000, it’s enough to make anyone nervous.
My take: A doji signals indecision, not a confirmed reversal. “Blindly go long” is the riskiest mindset to have ahead of the rate decision.
There are just two key levels: watch $81,500 to the upside; only a strong-volume hold above it on the 4-hour chart puts $83,500 in play. To the downside, watch $79,200; a close below that points to $77,000.
What would invalidate my view: if the price holds above $81,500 on strong 4-hour volume, my cautious outlook is off the table and I’d look toward $83,500. Conversely, a close below $79,200 invalidates the idea that the doji signals a reversal.
Which side are you on? Will you give the doji reversal thesis the benefit of the doubt, or wait for $79,200 or $81,500 to break before taking a position?
The bulls’ case is all over the discussion page:
The doji crowd says the daily charts for all three major coins have formed dojis. After a string of declines, they see this as a signal of a trend reversal, and have even mapped out a scenario: squeeze the shorts before the rate decision, then dump again late Thursday night to liquidate the longs, before surging past $90,000. Their worst-case target is $75,000, and they say anything below $80K is a buy.
The range traders are more specific: the current price is $80,365, with resistance at $81,500 and support at $79,200. The price has been pushed down to $79,200 three times, and buyers have stepped in each time. Funding rates are hovering around zero, with both bulls and bears holding their breath. If the price holds above $81,500 on strong volume on the 4-hour chart, they’re eyeing $83,500.
The bullish-divergence camp adds: there’s bullish divergence on the hourly chart. As long as $79,200 holds, the thesis remains intact. They suggest $79,000 as a reference for a stop-loss. If rates aren’t raised in the early hours of October 29, the price could rebound and test $82,000–$83,000.
The bears’ case comes from the same discussion page:
Each pre-meeting rebound has been weaker than the last. One post draws on the pattern of sharp drops at every rate decision and sees a low near $75,000 next week.
Yesterday’s move already caught traders out: the price plunged below $80,000 intraday, bottoming at just over $79,100. Two large Hyperliquid traders had a combined $8.05 million in long positions liquidated in a cascade, losing about $278,000. The price climbed back above $80,000 a few hours later, but those liquidations had already taken their toll.
The move on October 24 was even harsher: within an hour of dropping below $80,000, about $219 million in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated.
And two whales that had been dormant for about three years just transferred a combined 2,571 coins—worth roughly $206.5 million—into an institutional custody channel. A transfer doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate sell-off, but with that much sitting near $80,000, it’s enough to make anyone nervous.
My take: A doji signals indecision, not a confirmed reversal. “Blindly go long” is the riskiest mindset to have ahead of the rate decision.
There are just two key levels: watch $81,500 to the upside; only a strong-volume hold above it on the 4-hour chart puts $83,500 in play. To the downside, watch $79,200; a close below that points to $77,000.
What would invalidate my view: if the price holds above $81,500 on strong 4-hour volume, my cautious outlook is off the table and I’d look toward $83,500. Conversely, a close below $79,200 invalidates the idea that the doji signals a reversal.
Which side are you on? Will you give the doji reversal thesis the benefit of the doubt, or wait for $79,200 or $81,500 to break before taking a position?