Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor exposure explains about 54% of return differences, oil prices just 2%
The latest research from Goldman Sachs shows that over the past three weeks, exposure to semiconductor stocks explained about 54% of the differences in returns across asset classes, while exposure to oil prices explained just 2%. As the influence of AI trading continues to grow, technology stocks are becoming a major factor driving global market risk appetite and divergence in asset performance. Goldman Sachs noted that investors’ risk appetite has recently moved closely in tandem with the relative performance of large technology stocks. Last week, concerns over returns on AI investment, financing costs, and capital spending intensified, triggering sell-offs in technology stocks and corporate bonds. Goldman Sachs’ risk appetite indicator fell to its lowest level since April 2025. South Korea’s stock market is a notable example of these effects: on Tuesday, the KOSPI closed up 3.1%, while SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics gained 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Because semiconductor stocks carry significant weight in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, shifts in global expectations for AI investment directly affect the performance of the local market. Goldman Sachs stressed that the 54% and 2% figures reflect statistical relationships within a specific time window and do not mean that AI factors determine global market movements over the long term. The impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing should not be overlooked. Major technology companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are about to report earnings, and the market will focus on whether AI demand can continue to grow and whether massive capital expenditures can translate into actual profits.
The latest research from Goldman Sachs shows that over the past three weeks, exposure to semiconductor stocks explained about 54% of the differences in returns across asset classes, while exposure to oil prices explained just 2%. As the influence of AI trading continues to grow, technology stocks are becoming a major factor driving global market risk appetite and divergence in asset performance. Goldman Sachs noted that investors’ risk appetite has recently moved closely in tandem with the relative performance of large technology stocks. Last week, concerns over returns on AI investment, financing costs, and capital spending intensified, triggering sell-offs in technology stocks and corporate bonds. Goldman Sachs’ risk appetite indicator fell to its lowest level since April 2025. South Korea’s stock market is a notable example of these effects: on Tuesday, the KOSPI closed up 3.1%, while SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics gained 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Because semiconductor stocks carry significant weight in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, shifts in global expectations for AI investment directly affect the performance of the local market. Goldman Sachs stressed that the 54% and 2% figures reflect statistical relationships within a specific time window and do not mean that AI factors determine global market movements over the long term. The impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing should not be overlooked. Major technology companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are about to report earnings, and the market will focus on whether AI demand can continue to grow and whether massive capital expenditures can translate into actual profits.