75.8%. That’s the share of Binance Futures accounts going long on $SOL, up from just over 70% a week ago.

As for the price, it’s been grinding lower, dipping below 100 this afternoon and hovering there. If the daily candle closes like this, it’ll be the first close below 100 since mid-September.

The further it falls, the more people buy the dip, and open interest in futures has also been climbing over the past couple of days. Honestly, this setup makes me a little uneasy. Most of the buyers stepping in below are longs betting on the 100 level holding. If it breaks, those traders could become fuel for the drop.

I’m bearish, but I’m not chasing it here. I plan to wait for it to bounce first. Any rebound before it gets back above 103 is just a rebound in my eyes. It’s bounced twice since that wick on Saturday night, but neither time did it reach 103. On the downside, a break below the wick’s low of 98.5 would show that the 100 level has truly given way. Then we’ll see whether these longs can hold on.

If I’m wrong, it’s simple: if the price establishes itself above 103, I’ll admit I was wrong and drop my bearish view.

#Solana

This is just my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.