The Madman says…

Hayes really did sell. The market didn’t fall, and he closed out all of Maelstrom’s directional positions—6,400 ETH alone. The market absorbed everything dumped by a top player, which shows that there are buyers around 80,000. That said, his track record hasn’t been all that great.

Quite a few countries are making interest rate decisions this week. I’ll post a chart for you to take a look at. The most important thing is that the U.S. and Japan don’t pull any surprises. For now, it doesn’t look like they will. Meanwhile, more than $200 million in long-position fuel has piled up again around 79.4–79.6. With liquidity like this, quant traders can wipe it out in minutes. So even if we see a small, sharp drop this week, it’s still an opportunity to get in. I’m bullish on the market around the November 3 midterm elections.

A simple assessment based on the overall data:

1. Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $300 million last week, but $1 billion came in during the first three days, followed by $770 million in outflows over the last two. This suggests that funds are trading within the $80K–$85K range, with no clear direction.

2. MicroStrategy made no purchases last week and only bought back $200 million worth of preferred stock. Its cost basis is just 6% below the current price, so it appears to be waiting for a clearer picture or a more favorable price. Strive spent $511.4 million to buy 6,182 BTC at an average price of around $82,700, bringing its total holdings to 43,000 BTC. Another buyer has stepped in, with a further $1 billion planned purchase in the works.

3. Of the 870,000 BTC held by long-term holders on-chain, the price is around $80,000. No one moved when it fell below $80,000, suggesting that short-term holders are the main players, selling high and buying low.

4. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is due early Thursday morning. The probability of no change is currently 94%, so a rate hike is highly unlikely. However, we should first look at Wednesday evening’s core PCE inflation and GDP data.

Bitcoin retested below $80,000 twice over the weekend, and both times it quickly bounced back. For now, the bulls seem to be defending the price rather than pushing straight higher. Everyone is waiting for Warsh’s speech this week. Personally, I think expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in October and hike them in December are already quite high. The key thing to watch now is when oil prices will come down; falling oil prices would provide the real bullish momentum for Bitcoin to rise. I expect choppy trading in the first half of the week and a rebound in the second half, though it may not go very far.

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“[The Madman’s Trend Outlook] A Brief Sharp Drop This Week Would Still Be a Buying Opportunity; Bullish on the Market Around November 3” was first published on BlockTempo.