To be honest, what I’ve been most concerned about in the market lately isn’t the drop, but the fact that it’s been dropping with less and less movement.
I calculated the daily volatility of $BTC over the past 14 days, and it’s been only about 1.2% per day on average. In the previous month it was still 2.2%, almost cut in half 😶. The price has been grinding down from 84,082 to around 79,600 now, with several small bearish candles in a row and not a single decent big candle.
When volatility gets compressed like this, it usually won’t last too long. The question is which direction it will break.
The levels I’m watching:
- For BTC, first watch 81,000 above (around the 7-day moving average). If it can’t reclaim that, it’s still weak. Above that is the previous high at 84,000.
- Below BTC, 79,000 is the psychological level. Further down, around 77,000 is the 90-day moving average, and I think that line is basically the last bit of dignity for the bulls.
- $ETH is weaker than Bitcoin. It has already fallen below the 90-day moving average at 2,372, and now the 2,300 round number is holding it up. Until it reclaims 2,370, I won’t consider it strong.
If it breaks upward, a long period of compression can often lead to a sharp surge, squeezing out the bears. If it breaks downward, the same logic applies, and it may not stop until it hits 77,000. I’m keeping an eye on both sides 👀
There’s also an interest rate decision early Thursday morning, and my guess is that the trend change will probably happen around then.
What do you think—after being squeezed this long, will the first big move be a big green candle or a big red one?
Just my personal view, not investment advice. The market carries risk, so manage your own positions carefully.
#BTC #ETH #技术分析 #CryptoMarket
I calculated the daily volatility of $BTC over the past 14 days, and it’s been only about 1.2% per day on average. In the previous month it was still 2.2%, almost cut in half 😶. The price has been grinding down from 84,082 to around 79,600 now, with several small bearish candles in a row and not a single decent big candle.
When volatility gets compressed like this, it usually won’t last too long. The question is which direction it will break.
The levels I’m watching:
- For BTC, first watch 81,000 above (around the 7-day moving average). If it can’t reclaim that, it’s still weak. Above that is the previous high at 84,000.
- Below BTC, 79,000 is the psychological level. Further down, around 77,000 is the 90-day moving average, and I think that line is basically the last bit of dignity for the bulls.
- $ETH is weaker than Bitcoin. It has already fallen below the 90-day moving average at 2,372, and now the 2,300 round number is holding it up. Until it reclaims 2,370, I won’t consider it strong.
If it breaks upward, a long period of compression can often lead to a sharp surge, squeezing out the bears. If it breaks downward, the same logic applies, and it may not stop until it hits 77,000. I’m keeping an eye on both sides 👀
There’s also an interest rate decision early Thursday morning, and my guess is that the trend change will probably happen around then.
What do you think—after being squeezed this long, will the first big move be a big green candle or a big red one?
Just my personal view, not investment advice. The market carries risk, so manage your own positions carefully.
#BTC #ETH #技术分析 #CryptoMarket