The most noteworthy thing isn’t that Anthropic is aiming for the biggest IPO in history, potentially even surpassing Berkshire Hathaway. It’s that the company has laid bare the AI industry’s “money-burning black hole” for Wall Street 😂
First, look at the numbers—they’re wildly contradictory. Its valuation surged from $183 billion to $965 billion in just over a year, and expectations for its IPO are approaching $2 trillion. Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $16.3 billion, up 14-fold year over year. Sounds impressive, right? But growth has already plunged from about 140% in the second quarter to 45% in the third.
The losses are even more alarming. It lost nearly $42 billion in 2025, then almost $81 billion in just the first two quarters of this year. More astonishingly, since the end of 2025, the company has committed $417 billion to computing resources and infrastructure.
Even CEO Dario has admitted that the economics of AI are completely different from those of big tech: “If my growth forecast is off by just one year—or if growth is fivefold in a year instead of tenfold—the company will go bankrupt.” Even a New York University professor says nobody knows what sales will look like five years from now; everyone’s in the dark.
And Anthropic doesn’t yet have full control of its lifeline. In the first half of the year, 48% of its sales came through the cloud marketplaces of three tech companies—and those companies are building their own models, too.
So what’s Wall Street after? The chance to invest directly in the core assets of the AI economy for the first time. But this isn’t just Anthropic’s high-stakes gamble—it’s a litmus test for the entire VC world. With potential government scrutiny, security risks, and even protesters showing up at headquarters chanting “Stop the IPO,” this game has moved beyond pure business logic.
My personal take: this will probably become a defining moment in the AI boom, but more than that, it’s a brutal stress test of whether cash flow can support sky-high valuations. If it works, it’ll usher in a new era; if it fails, it could be the pin that pops the bubble. As things stand, the financial structure is walking a tightrope, with almost no room for error. Security risks, commercial monetization, and the rate of cash burn all have to come together within one cycle—or a $2 trillion valuation simply won’t hold.
What do you think—will Wall Street really pay up for this $2 trillion valuation, or are they just looking to fleece the last wave of investors? Let’s talk in the comments~ #Anthropic预计今日公布S1招股书
First, look at the numbers—they’re wildly contradictory. Its valuation surged from $183 billion to $965 billion in just over a year, and expectations for its IPO are approaching $2 trillion. Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $16.3 billion, up 14-fold year over year. Sounds impressive, right? But growth has already plunged from about 140% in the second quarter to 45% in the third.
The losses are even more alarming. It lost nearly $42 billion in 2025, then almost $81 billion in just the first two quarters of this year. More astonishingly, since the end of 2025, the company has committed $417 billion to computing resources and infrastructure.
Even CEO Dario has admitted that the economics of AI are completely different from those of big tech: “If my growth forecast is off by just one year—or if growth is fivefold in a year instead of tenfold—the company will go bankrupt.” Even a New York University professor says nobody knows what sales will look like five years from now; everyone’s in the dark.
And Anthropic doesn’t yet have full control of its lifeline. In the first half of the year, 48% of its sales came through the cloud marketplaces of three tech companies—and those companies are building their own models, too.
So what’s Wall Street after? The chance to invest directly in the core assets of the AI economy for the first time. But this isn’t just Anthropic’s high-stakes gamble—it’s a litmus test for the entire VC world. With potential government scrutiny, security risks, and even protesters showing up at headquarters chanting “Stop the IPO,” this game has moved beyond pure business logic.
My personal take: this will probably become a defining moment in the AI boom, but more than that, it’s a brutal stress test of whether cash flow can support sky-high valuations. If it works, it’ll usher in a new era; if it fails, it could be the pin that pops the bubble. As things stand, the financial structure is walking a tightrope, with almost no room for error. Security risks, commercial monetization, and the rate of cash burn all have to come together within one cycle—or a $2 trillion valuation simply won’t hold.
What do you think—will Wall Street really pay up for this $2 trillion valuation, or are they just looking to fleece the last wave of investors? Let’s talk in the comments~ #Anthropic预计今日公布S1招股书
