Polymarket gave Lula a 20% chance of winning, but he went on to win Brazil’s presidential election
In Brazil’s presidential election, Polymarket put Lula’s chances of winning at 20% and Bolsonaro’s at 80%. But Lula went on to win a fourth presidential term, proving the prediction spectacularly wrong.
Some analysts say the mispricing was linked to Brazil’s ban on prediction markets: all the traders were overseas, and trading volume was only 4.5% of that in the U.S. presidential election. But then again, an event with a 20% probability still has a 20% chance of happening. Prediction markets aren’t oracles—they’re just betting tools.
Would you still use Polymarket as a source of information? Let’s talk in the comments. #预测市场 #Polymarket
In Brazil’s presidential election, Polymarket put Lula’s chances of winning at 20% and Bolsonaro’s at 80%. But Lula went on to win a fourth presidential term, proving the prediction spectacularly wrong.
Some analysts say the mispricing was linked to Brazil’s ban on prediction markets: all the traders were overseas, and trading volume was only 4.5% of that in the U.S. presidential election. But then again, an event with a 20% probability still has a 20% chance of happening. Prediction markets aren’t oracles—they’re just betting tools.
Would you still use Polymarket as a source of information? Let’s talk in the comments. #预测市场 #Polymarket