$Q The second short squeeze is here. Bottom line first: don’t chase a new high—the setup is exactly the same as the first wave.
A quick recap of the first wave: On October 18, we said that the rally in $Q was a futures-driven short squeeze, not a fundamentals-led bull market. Don’t chase spot; wait for a 40–60% pullback after the squeeze ends. The result: it fell from the previous high of $0.1456 to $0.054, a drop of about 63%. The expected pullback played out.
Today’s second wave: Up about 247% in 24 hours, it ranged between $0.054 and $0.2002 intraday, setting a new all-time high. 24-hour trading volume topped $100 million, and market cap reached about $930 million.
What the bulls are saying: It broke above the previous high on surging volume—the new high itself is the strongest advertisement.
What the bears are saying: ① Same old problem: In October, futures volume far exceeded spot volume, and there was no new catalyst. This time, too, there’s no sign of any new positive news. ② About 241 million tokens are set to unlock on November 2, or 2.41% of the total supply. Buying above the new high is basically helping unlock sellers cash out.
My view: Don’t chase the new high at $0.20. Wait and see if it stabilizes around the previous high of $0.1456; if it can’t hold, keep waiting. Short-squeeze rallies rise fast and fall even faster. Chasing the second wave is no different from chasing the first.
A quick recap of the first wave: On October 18, we said that the rally in $Q was a futures-driven short squeeze, not a fundamentals-led bull market. Don’t chase spot; wait for a 40–60% pullback after the squeeze ends. The result: it fell from the previous high of $0.1456 to $0.054, a drop of about 63%. The expected pullback played out.
Today’s second wave: Up about 247% in 24 hours, it ranged between $0.054 and $0.2002 intraday, setting a new all-time high. 24-hour trading volume topped $100 million, and market cap reached about $930 million.
What the bulls are saying: It broke above the previous high on surging volume—the new high itself is the strongest advertisement.
What the bears are saying: ① Same old problem: In October, futures volume far exceeded spot volume, and there was no new catalyst. This time, too, there’s no sign of any new positive news. ② About 241 million tokens are set to unlock on November 2, or 2.41% of the total supply. Buying above the new high is basically helping unlock sellers cash out.
My view: Don’t chase the new high at $0.20. Wait and see if it stabilizes around the previous high of $0.1456; if it can’t hold, keep waiting. Short-squeeze rallies rise fast and fall even faster. Chasing the second wave is no different from chasing the first.