FOMC day: $BTC stuck at 80k waiting for an answer
The Federal Reserve meets on 10/27–28, with the decision expected around 2:00 AM Beijing time on 10/29. According to CME FedWatch (around 10/27 01:00 UTC), keeping the rate at 3.75%–4.00% is about 88%, while a rate hike is about 12%; but for December, the odds of moving up to 4.00%–4.25% rise to about 74% — more important is the tone of the statement.
▶︎ Binance spot $BTC is around 80,220, with a 24h low of about 79,369, still hovering around 80k/79,800
▶︎ $ETH is around 2,325, just holding 2,320
▶︎ According to Farside, BTC spot ETFs saw about $774 million in net inflows on 10/22–23; over the past 7 days, net inflows are still about $230 million
▶︎ Fear & Greed at 48 (neutral); on X, a BlockBeats repost of Wintermute suggested the next level may be 76k
My view: the market has already priced in "no change." If the statement is hawkish or explicitly mentions December, it may retest below 80k; if it’s dovish, first watch whether it can reclaim the roughly 80.2k–81.5k cost basis band. Keep leverage low before the decision.
Are you more worried about an unexpected hike, or about "no hike but more hawkish"?
Risk reminder: not investment advice. Volatility may increase, so please manage position size.
The Federal Reserve meets on 10/27–28, with the decision expected around 2:00 AM Beijing time on 10/29. According to CME FedWatch (around 10/27 01:00 UTC), keeping the rate at 3.75%–4.00% is about 88%, while a rate hike is about 12%; but for December, the odds of moving up to 4.00%–4.25% rise to about 74% — more important is the tone of the statement.
▶︎ Binance spot $BTC is around 80,220, with a 24h low of about 79,369, still hovering around 80k/79,800
▶︎ $ETH is around 2,325, just holding 2,320
▶︎ According to Farside, BTC spot ETFs saw about $774 million in net inflows on 10/22–23; over the past 7 days, net inflows are still about $230 million
▶︎ Fear & Greed at 48 (neutral); on X, a BlockBeats repost of Wintermute suggested the next level may be 76k
My view: the market has already priced in "no change." If the statement is hawkish or explicitly mentions December, it may retest below 80k; if it’s dovish, first watch whether it can reclaim the roughly 80.2k–81.5k cost basis band. Keep leverage low before the decision.
Are you more worried about an unexpected hike, or about "no hike but more hawkish"?
Risk reminder: not investment advice. Volatility may increase, so please manage position size.