#币安神算子
Positions, profit and loss, and post-trade reviews—all public. Today, let’s break down a few of the markets with the highest trading volume.
First, I need to correct something. Yesterday I said that three candidates all being at 99% meant there was a pricing contradiction. After checking today, I confirmed that the “Teams to reach the finals” market is settled independently for each team, so all three teams being at 99% is entirely possible. Only mutually exclusive, single-choice markets like MVP would be structurally wrong if all three players were at 99%. Read the settlement terms before placing a bet—don’t let the interface layout fool you.
Microsoft earnings “beat expectations” is at 89%, which looks like a sure thing. Let’s do the math: buy at 89 and get back 100, for odds of 1.124. You need a win probability above 89% just to break even. That 11-point gap is the market’s toll. Google is at just 21% for the same week. The market charges a premium for certainty; buying certainty is like buying overpriced insurance.
The Warriors are at 29% against the Nuggets and 44% against the Lakers. Same team, different opponent. Any assessment of a team needs to include the opponent; otherwise, that percentage is meaningless.
As usual, here are my two positions: Inter Milan, entered at 0.74, now 0.73; Nuggets, entered at 0.72, now 0.71. Both are at a small loss. My reasoning hasn’t changed: I don’t react to volatility, and I don’t add to positions around 70%. We’re still a long way from my discipline threshold.
This is a record of my actual decisions and does not constitute investment advice.
$USDC
Positions, profit and loss, and post-trade reviews—all public. Today, let’s break down a few of the markets with the highest trading volume.
First, I need to correct something. Yesterday I said that three candidates all being at 99% meant there was a pricing contradiction. After checking today, I confirmed that the “Teams to reach the finals” market is settled independently for each team, so all three teams being at 99% is entirely possible. Only mutually exclusive, single-choice markets like MVP would be structurally wrong if all three players were at 99%. Read the settlement terms before placing a bet—don’t let the interface layout fool you.
Microsoft earnings “beat expectations” is at 89%, which looks like a sure thing. Let’s do the math: buy at 89 and get back 100, for odds of 1.124. You need a win probability above 89% just to break even. That 11-point gap is the market’s toll. Google is at just 21% for the same week. The market charges a premium for certainty; buying certainty is like buying overpriced insurance.
The Warriors are at 29% against the Nuggets and 44% against the Lakers. Same team, different opponent. Any assessment of a team needs to include the opponent; otherwise, that percentage is meaningless.
As usual, here are my two positions: Inter Milan, entered at 0.74, now 0.73; Nuggets, entered at 0.72, now 0.71. Both are at a small loss. My reasoning hasn’t changed: I don’t react to volatility, and I don’t add to positions around 70%. We’re still a long way from my discipline threshold.
This is a record of my actual decisions and does not constitute investment advice.
$USDC