I took a look at last week’s ETF flows this morning, and the more I looked, the more something seemed off.
Last week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw roughly **$300 million** in net inflows, seemingly ending two consecutive weeks of outflows. But a closer look shows that BlackRock’s IBIT alone took in $500–600 million, while the other funds combined were net sellers. For all of October, IBIT had about $750 million in cumulative net inflows, while all the rest combined totaled **-$1.07 billion** (according to DWF Labs).
Put simply, this isn’t institutions collectively buying the dip—one fund is buying while the others are heading for the exits. Buying this narrowly can support the market through choppy conditions, but it’s unlikely to fuel a meaningful rally. 😅
Let’s look at prices again. $BTC It’s around 80,100 now, basically unchanged over 24 hours and down 2.4% over 7 days. Over the past 30 days, daily closes have slid from 86,490 to where we are now. Yesterday, it dipped to around 79,300 in the early Asian session before bouncing back.
I’m watching just two levels:
- Around **82,900** above, where we were a week ago. If it can’t get back above that, don’t talk about a reversal.
- Around **78,100** below. DWF’s research says that when BTC pulls back more than 7% from its 20-day high, ETF flows often flip from net inflows to net outflows within a week. Saturday’s low was only about a thousand bucks away from that level.
$ETH Things look even worse for ETH: 2,324, down 3.5% over 7 days, with the lowest daily close in the past 30 days at the current level. Spot ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for 4 straight weeks, and the largest one, ETHA, hasn’t seen a single inflow in 19 trading days. Over the weekend, Arthur Hayes also said his fund had closed all its directional positions, including 6,400 ETH. Honestly, I can’t bring myself to insist that ETH is about to have an independent rally at a time like this.
Altcoins, on the other hand, are a little interesting. $BNB Up 1.5% over 7 days, it’s almost the only one in the top 10 in the green. ENA is up more than 9% over 7 days, and PEPE is also slightly higher. But AAVE is down 9% for the week and SUI is down 8%—there’s a clear divergence between DeFi and layer-1s. My read is that money is looking for coins with “a story of their own” as a safe haven, not mounting a broad-based offensive.
The sentiment index is at 48, neutral, down from 54 a few days ago. No panic, but no one dares get greedy either.
The real focus today is actually two days from now: the Fed’s rate decision is on Wednesday, with the announcement coming early Thursday morning Beijing time. The market is almost entirely pricing in no change. Polymarket puts the odds of rates holding steady at around 95%, but expectations for a December rate hike are still hovering around 70–80%. I’m more interested in what the post-meeting statement signals about December than in this decision itself. On top of that, oil prices have been hovering above $100 this week, and the U.S. midterm elections are on November 3. There are a lot of variables.
So my plan for today is simple: don’t chase, don’t panic. As long as 78K holds, I’ll treat it as a range; if it breaks, we’ll reassess. I could be wrong, but at this level I’d rather make less. 🤷
Do you think BTC will test 78K first or rebound to 82K before the rate decision?
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Manage your own positions.