$BZ Brent crude at elevated levels: the battle around the $112 mark
Guys, after two days of trading sideways, the BZ market was pretty grueling today once trading opened. It surged above $112 and was immediately knocked back down. Now it’s seesawing around $111.3. This is a classic case of being reluctant to chase prices higher or short them lower—a real dilemma.
In my view, this volatility isn’t just a simple technical correction; it’s a psychological battle between bulls and bears amid extreme emotions.
The news is sending mixed signals. The market is hopeful that tensions will ease, and the war premium could unwind at any moment. But reports of mines in the Strait of Hormuz and missile interceptions haven’t stopped either. Negotiations and fighting are happening at the same time. Until a formal agreement is signed, every spike in this news-driven market could be a bull trap.
Exports from Gulf oil-producing countries are also recovering, traffic through the strait is picking up, and freight rates are falling. Supply constraints are indeed easing, but global demand expectations have been revised down, diesel cracks remain high, and structural tightness in refined products hasn’t been resolved. I think supply recovery is a slow-moving factor, while demand contraction can happen quickly. The floor under oil prices in the short term may not be as solid as it seems.
Geopolitical premiums and recovering supply are pulling against each other, while weak demand and tight refined-product markets are offsetting one another. In the short term, prices are most likely to remain volatile within a wide range at elevated levels, making directional bets extremely risky.
For now, I’d recommend neither chasing the rally nor trying to catch the bottom. Wait for a clear signal from progress in negotiations or data on passage through the strait before making a move. #Anthropic滚动12个月营收增长约1200%
Guys, after two days of trading sideways, the BZ market was pretty grueling today once trading opened. It surged above $112 and was immediately knocked back down. Now it’s seesawing around $111.3. This is a classic case of being reluctant to chase prices higher or short them lower—a real dilemma.
In my view, this volatility isn’t just a simple technical correction; it’s a psychological battle between bulls and bears amid extreme emotions.
The news is sending mixed signals. The market is hopeful that tensions will ease, and the war premium could unwind at any moment. But reports of mines in the Strait of Hormuz and missile interceptions haven’t stopped either. Negotiations and fighting are happening at the same time. Until a formal agreement is signed, every spike in this news-driven market could be a bull trap.
Exports from Gulf oil-producing countries are also recovering, traffic through the strait is picking up, and freight rates are falling. Supply constraints are indeed easing, but global demand expectations have been revised down, diesel cracks remain high, and structural tightness in refined products hasn’t been resolved. I think supply recovery is a slow-moving factor, while demand contraction can happen quickly. The floor under oil prices in the short term may not be as solid as it seems.
Geopolitical premiums and recovering supply are pulling against each other, while weak demand and tight refined-product markets are offsetting one another. In the short term, prices are most likely to remain volatile within a wide range at elevated levels, making directional bets extremely risky.
For now, I’d recommend neither chasing the rally nor trying to catch the bottom. Wait for a clear signal from progress in negotiations or data on passage through the strait before making a move. #Anthropic滚动12个月营收增长约1200%
