On October 25, SlayGuwl called for shorting $BTW. According to his analysis, the token will “most likely crash tomorrow” when a new weekly candle opens. Meanwhile, another trader complained that they had held a position for two months, paid over 300 USDT in funding fees in just three days, and had to close their short at a loss of 1,130 USDT.
What exactly the author claims.
Expecting a sharp drop in $BTW at the start of the new week. No specific entry, stop-loss, or take-profit levels in the visible part of the post. Just “short it, it’ll fall tomorrow.”
The post is dated October 25. By October 26, the price had already fallen lower. At the time of checking, $BTW is trading around 1.48–1.55 USDT, down 8–10% over 24 hours. The token has lost about 45% from its ATH of 2.75–2.77 (October 14). The weekly candle did indeed open in the red. The author got the direction right, but the move started earlier than “tomorrow.”
Current situation
High volatility. 24-hour futures turnover is significant (tens to hundreds of millions of dollars, depending on the exchange). Funding is negative—shorts are paying longs. This is unusual for the coin and indicates a bias toward sellers. Open interest remains significant. The price is well below recent highs and continues to test the lower end of the range from the past two weeks.
Technical analysis:
After the sharp rise in early to mid-October, the structure broke down. The price breached several local support levels. The current momentum is downward. Support is being sought in the 1.40–1.45 zone, with deeper levels around 1.30 below that. Resistance is in the 1.65–1.70 zone, then 1.80+. There are no signs of a reversal so far: no sustained move above key short-term moving averages and no clear increase in buying volume on rebounds. The preferred scenario is further downside or sideways movement with a downward bias until a confirmed reversal appears (breakout + hold + retest).
News analysis:
Over the past two months, $BTW has gone through a classic “rally — ATH — correction” cycle. In October, the token reached a new all-time high of around 2.75 amid broader interest in Bitcoin-related projects and listings. At the same time, regular unlocks were taking place (around 100 million tokens per month). In mid-October, the broader market corrected, and BTC fell from 84–85k to 80k. In this environment, highly volatile altcoins with large supplies and concentrated ownership usually suffer more. No clear positive catalysts have emerged in recent days.
Fundamental analysis:
Bitway positions itself as a Bitcoin-oriented project with L1 and DeFi yield features (staking, lending, vaults). Total supply is 10 billion BTW. Approximately 1.5–2.9 billion are in circulation, depending on the source (there are notable discrepancies in circulating supply data). Allocation: significant shares go to the community, ecosystem, team, and backers. The team and backers have long cliff periods, while community and ecosystem tokens are unlocked gradually. High concentration (according to some reports, one wallet controls a very large share) creates a risk of large-scale selling. The project is young (launched in spring 2026), and its real product-market fit and sustainable demand for the token are yet to be proven. Demand for assets like this is weak in the current market phase.
Weak points in the original idea.
No clear levels. “It’ll crash tomorrow” is too vague. By the time of checking, part of the move had already happened. Shorting a highly volatile altcoin with negative funding can quickly become costly if the price rebounds sharply (a typical short-squeeze scenario). There is also a risk of a false breakdown to the downside.
Alternative scenario.
If BTC stabilizes above 80k and risk-on sentiment returns, $BTW could see a technical rebound to 1.70–1.80. In that case, a short without a clear stop would become unprofitable. A long from current levels is only possible after a confirmed structural reversal and an increase in volume.
Trading plan
Direction: SHORT (preferred) / wait for confirmation before going LONG.
ENTRY / entry zone:
Short: 1.55–1.65 on a rebound or if the decline continues below 1.50.
Long: only after the price holds above 1.70–1.75 and retests.
Confirmation condition:
For a short—daily/4-hour candle close below 1.48–1.50 with volume.
For a long—a convincing breakout and hold above 1.70.
TP1: 1.40
TP2: 1.30
TP3: 1.20–1.25
STOP LOSS: above 1.72–1.75 (for a short).
INVALIDATION: daily close above 1.80 and a recovery of the structure above the local highs of recent days.
RISK: 0.25–0.5% of capital. The asset is highly volatile, and funding can quickly eat into the position. A large position size is not recommended.
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