“The bear market is over” sounds like a conclusion, but the real question worth asking is: why does Galaxy think a pullback is a buying opportunity? I’m not in a hurry to accept that statement, and I’m not in a hurry to reject it either. It offers several verifiable pieces of evidence, but whether those are enough to support “the bear market is over” still depends on the time window, what the indicators actually mean, and what would cause the judgment to fail.
Jinse Finance reported on October 26, 2026 that Galaxy Research said in a report submitted to The Block that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that it is now time to buy and hold. The report was written by company-wide research chief Alex Thorn. First, let’s be clear about attribution: this is Galaxy’s research view, not a market-confirmed fact, and certainly not a conclusion that applies uniformly to all crypto assets.
The first basis cited in the report is price trend: as of October 18, Bitcoin had closed above the 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks, after having spent 44 consecutive weeks below that line. This change does show that the price’s position relative to the long-term moving average is different now; but five weeks above the line does not automatically prove that the trend is firmly established. A moving average is a summary of past prices; it can help describe a trend, but it can also lag when the market keeps reversing.
The second basis relates to the supply held by long-term holders. The report says the monthly average amount of Bitcoin moving from wallets inactive for more than five years fell from 67,000 coins in 2024 to 47,000 in 2025 and 34,000 in 2026; since October 2024, about 1.11 million BTC in this age cohort have moved, with most absorbed by ETFs and public treasury companies. If this statistical framework holds, a decline in long-term holder movement could mean less potential selling pressure from that group; but “moved” does not mean fully sold, and buyer absorption alone cannot prove that no new supply will appear later. Stock, period movement, and actual net selling should not be read as the same number.
The third reason is that U.S. federal debt has reached $40.44 trillion. Galaxy views the rise in debt as a macro argument for Bitcoin’s long-term value, which explains why it is constructive on the longer cycle; but the size of the debt by itself does not tell us when or how capital will flow into Bitcoin. Macro logic can form a view, but it cannot replace verification from price and capital flows.
Counterarguments also cannot be ignored: one long-term trend line and a set of supply statistics may not be enough to define when a bear market ends. The report also gives a clear challenge condition: if the weekly close falls below the 50-week moving average at $76,540 and does not recover within a month, Galaxy’s bullish view will be challenged. This makes the view more testable, but it is still an observation standard set by a research report, not a boundary the market is obligated to obey.
My view is that Galaxy’s arguments are worth tracking, but they are still not enough for me to treat “the bear market is over” as an established fact. What should be watched next is the weekly close relative to the 50-week moving average, whether the movement in long-inactive wallets continues to decline, and whether the absorption described in the report can be confirmed by subsequent data. If the price falls below the report’s stated condition and fails to recover for a month, the original judgment would need to be reassessed; if the indicators continue to strengthen, that would only add supporting evidence and would not automatically prove future price action.
This report is talking directly about Bitcoin, not Ethereum. The judgment on $BTC cannot simply be applied to $ETH ; the latter needs its own trend, supply, and capital-flow evidence. Rather than uncritically accepting the phrase “the bear market is over,” I would rather focus on the conditions it lays out: what data can support the view, and what data can overturn it.
Jinse Finance reported on October 26, 2026 that Galaxy Research said in a report submitted to The Block that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that it is now time to buy and hold. The report was written by company-wide research chief Alex Thorn. First, let’s be clear about attribution: this is Galaxy’s research view, not a market-confirmed fact, and certainly not a conclusion that applies uniformly to all crypto assets.
The first basis cited in the report is price trend: as of October 18, Bitcoin had closed above the 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks, after having spent 44 consecutive weeks below that line. This change does show that the price’s position relative to the long-term moving average is different now; but five weeks above the line does not automatically prove that the trend is firmly established. A moving average is a summary of past prices; it can help describe a trend, but it can also lag when the market keeps reversing.
The second basis relates to the supply held by long-term holders. The report says the monthly average amount of Bitcoin moving from wallets inactive for more than five years fell from 67,000 coins in 2024 to 47,000 in 2025 and 34,000 in 2026; since October 2024, about 1.11 million BTC in this age cohort have moved, with most absorbed by ETFs and public treasury companies. If this statistical framework holds, a decline in long-term holder movement could mean less potential selling pressure from that group; but “moved” does not mean fully sold, and buyer absorption alone cannot prove that no new supply will appear later. Stock, period movement, and actual net selling should not be read as the same number.
The third reason is that U.S. federal debt has reached $40.44 trillion. Galaxy views the rise in debt as a macro argument for Bitcoin’s long-term value, which explains why it is constructive on the longer cycle; but the size of the debt by itself does not tell us when or how capital will flow into Bitcoin. Macro logic can form a view, but it cannot replace verification from price and capital flows.
Counterarguments also cannot be ignored: one long-term trend line and a set of supply statistics may not be enough to define when a bear market ends. The report also gives a clear challenge condition: if the weekly close falls below the 50-week moving average at $76,540 and does not recover within a month, Galaxy’s bullish view will be challenged. This makes the view more testable, but it is still an observation standard set by a research report, not a boundary the market is obligated to obey.
My view is that Galaxy’s arguments are worth tracking, but they are still not enough for me to treat “the bear market is over” as an established fact. What should be watched next is the weekly close relative to the 50-week moving average, whether the movement in long-inactive wallets continues to decline, and whether the absorption described in the report can be confirmed by subsequent data. If the price falls below the report’s stated condition and fails to recover for a month, the original judgment would need to be reassessed; if the indicators continue to strengthen, that would only add supporting evidence and would not automatically prove future price action.
This report is talking directly about Bitcoin, not Ethereum. The judgment on $BTC cannot simply be applied to $ETH ; the latter needs its own trend, supply, and capital-flow evidence. Rather than uncritically accepting the phrase “the bear market is over,” I would rather focus on the conditions it lays out: what data can support the view, and what data can overturn it.
