Arthur Hayes announced on Saturday 24/10 (06:18 UTC, on X) that Maelstrom, his family office, had sold its entire directional book. Lookonchain puts the sales at $22.28M, including 6 400 $ETH (about $15.2M). Two days later, this basket is worth only about 1% less.
1/ What was sold. According to Lookonchain: 6,400 ETH, 14M of $ENA ($2.76M), 323,000 $UNI ($2.24M), plus ETHFI, AERO, PENDLE and ZAMA. ETH accounts for about 68% of the total. EmberCN gives a higher figure of $26.08M, with 8,000 ETH. Maelstrom has confirmed neither the wallets nor the amounts, and Hayes has not disclosed any purchase prices.
2/ What has happened since. Between 24/10 06:00 UTC and this Monday 12:00 UTC (Binance spot): ETH -2.2%, ENA +5.0%, UNI +1.3%, AERO -7.7%, BTC -0.5%. Weighted by the amounts sold, the basket is down 1.0%, or about $0.22M. ENA, sold on Saturday, is actually one of the day's best performers, and CoinDesk notes that the DeFi index is the only one in the green this Monday.
3/ My take. The message matters more than the trade. “We have to go down to go back up,” Hayes wrote, despite still calling for a bullish bet on BTC and ETH on 15/10 (BeInCrypto). Exiting just before a Fed meeting where CME FedWatch puts the odds of no change at 90%, but the chances of a rate hike in December at about 80% (CoinDesk), is a bet on the tone, not the decision. For now, the market is proving neither him right nor wrong.
What could settle it this week:
If Warsh cools the December rate-hike outlook and ETH climbs back above $2,384 (its high since the sale), the exit will look premature.
If the tone turns hawkish and ETH breaks below $2,282 (its low since Saturday), it will have been well timed.
What about you: does a public exit by a big name change your position, or are you waiting for the Fed on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC?
#ArthurHayes #Ethereum
1/ What was sold. According to Lookonchain: 6,400 ETH, 14M of $ENA ($2.76M), 323,000 $UNI ($2.24M), plus ETHFI, AERO, PENDLE and ZAMA. ETH accounts for about 68% of the total. EmberCN gives a higher figure of $26.08M, with 8,000 ETH. Maelstrom has confirmed neither the wallets nor the amounts, and Hayes has not disclosed any purchase prices.
2/ What has happened since. Between 24/10 06:00 UTC and this Monday 12:00 UTC (Binance spot): ETH -2.2%, ENA +5.0%, UNI +1.3%, AERO -7.7%, BTC -0.5%. Weighted by the amounts sold, the basket is down 1.0%, or about $0.22M. ENA, sold on Saturday, is actually one of the day's best performers, and CoinDesk notes that the DeFi index is the only one in the green this Monday.
3/ My take. The message matters more than the trade. “We have to go down to go back up,” Hayes wrote, despite still calling for a bullish bet on BTC and ETH on 15/10 (BeInCrypto). Exiting just before a Fed meeting where CME FedWatch puts the odds of no change at 90%, but the chances of a rate hike in December at about 80% (CoinDesk), is a bet on the tone, not the decision. For now, the market is proving neither him right nor wrong.
What could settle it this week:
If Warsh cools the December rate-hike outlook and ETH climbs back above $2,384 (its high since the sale), the exit will look premature.
If the tone turns hawkish and ETH breaks below $2,282 (its low since Saturday), it will have been well timed.
What about you: does a public exit by a big name change your position, or are you waiting for the Fed on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC?
#ArthurHayes #Ethereum
