$TRUMP is ~$1.669 at 18:51 ICT Oct 26 on Binance spot. That's -19% since the Oct 1 close ($2.06), when the third holder dinner was announced. It's also -97.7% from the $73.43 ATH. Price has tested the same floor twice: $1.621 on Oct 24 and $1.618 today. Here is my plan.

🔥 What's moving it

• Nov 22: gala dinner for the top 185 holders. Rank is a time-weighted score, and the final snapshot is Nov 12 (17 days out).

• This time the hype didn't show up. The first two dinner announcements pumped TRUMP +44% (Apr 2025) and +32% (Mar 2026) on the day. Oct 1 closed +0.3%.

• Both earlier events sold off on the event day itself (-15% and -11%).

• Supply: ~904K TRUMP unlocks every day to creators/CIC Digital (~$1.5M a day vs ~$6.4M daily Binance spot volume). Only ~282M of the 1B supply is circulating.

• Oct 22: eight US senators asked the White House for the guest list, with answers requested by Oct 30 and a briefing by Nov 6. Headline risk, both ways.

📊 Daily (1D)

Lower highs all month: $2.25 (Oct 1) → $1.96 (Oct 12) → $1.92 (Oct 21). Every bounce has died under the 1D EMA20 (~$1.80). The EMA50 (~$1.90) and EMA200 (~$2.32) are far above.

Volume today is ~0.44x the 20-day average, so sellers are tired, but buyers aren't here yet.

Wilder RSI(14) ~37: weak, not oversold.

⏱️ 4H

The Oct 21 pop to $1.922 fully faded in three days. Since Oct 24, price has been stuck in a tight $1.62–1.70 box.

The Oct 26 11:00 ICT candle bought the $1.626 dip on ~2.4x average volume, and price is now pressing the 4H EMA20 (~$1.685). The 4H EMA50 (~$1.733) is the first real ceiling.

Wilder RSI(14) ~44 (live bar), up from ~37. It's the first sign of a bounce, but not a trend change yet.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $1.62–1.65 (Oct 24–26 lows)

• TP1: $1.71–1.73 (4H EMA50 + Oct 24 highs; ~1.7–2.1R from $1.635)

• TP2: $1.78–1.80 (1D EMA20 + Oct 23 highs; ~3.2–3.7R)

• Out: 4H close below $1.595 (stop $1.59, risk ~2.75%)

• Bull trigger: 4H close above $1.73 brings TP2 into play

• Bear case: lose $1.595 and the July lows at $1.50–1.55 are next, then the $1.365 ATL (Aug 13). That's a new plan, not an add.

💭 My take

The snapshot could pull in some quiet buying before Nov 12. But the daily unlocks and the fact that the dinner pump never came both say "rent the bounce, don't marry it." I won't chase at $1.67 (TP1 is only ~0.5–0.8R from here). I'll split bids at $1.62–1.65 and trim at the 4H EMA50. If $1.62 breaks for a third time, I step aside.

Does $1.62 hold into the Nov 12 snapshot, or does $TRUMP go back for the July lows first? 👇

NFA. DYOR.