$BTC midday, it just broke below 80,000, down to 79,332. At the time, I said not to chase shorts or buy the dip, but to wait for a clear signal on the daily chart—and now the price has drifted back toward 80,000. That hasn’t made me eat my words. But one call is a lot bolder than mine: analyst Benjamin Cowen’s bearish roadmap for the fourth quarter. Two of its nine steps have already been checked off.
In plain English: the weekly close below 83,000? Done. The October 25 false breakout? Confirmed. Next in line: the Fed holds rates steady on October 28; PCE comes in hot on October 29; Brent crude surges from last Friday’s close of $116.72 to $120; and the 10-year Treasury yield climbs from 5.10% back to 5.3%. Oil and Treasuries have already made most of their moves. Now we’ll see whether the cards are dealt this Wednesday and Thursday.
Of course, there’s a cancellation clause: if $BTC gets back above 83,000 and holds there, the whole call is off. On the other hand, if 80,000 gives way again, the first downside target is 77,876, followed by the 76,700–72,500 range. Saturday’s move also liquidated $191 million in long positions, and the average cost basis for corporate treasuries is right around 80,000. So if 80,000 goes again, it won’t just be a technical level breaking—institutions’ books will be turning red too.
My position is simple: this week, I’m keeping my eyes fixed on 83,000, the invalidation line. Is Cowen’s call a genuine roadmap or just a paper tiger meant to scare people? We’ll find out when PCE comes out on Thursday. Just my personal opinion, not financial advice—which side are you betting on this week: $BTC reclaiming 83,000 first and invalidating the bear call, or testing 77,876 first? Pick a side in the comments.
#USQ3GDPAndSeptemberPCEDueNextWeek #BTC #FOMC
In plain English: the weekly close below 83,000? Done. The October 25 false breakout? Confirmed. Next in line: the Fed holds rates steady on October 28; PCE comes in hot on October 29; Brent crude surges from last Friday’s close of $116.72 to $120; and the 10-year Treasury yield climbs from 5.10% back to 5.3%. Oil and Treasuries have already made most of their moves. Now we’ll see whether the cards are dealt this Wednesday and Thursday.
Of course, there’s a cancellation clause: if $BTC gets back above 83,000 and holds there, the whole call is off. On the other hand, if 80,000 gives way again, the first downside target is 77,876, followed by the 76,700–72,500 range. Saturday’s move also liquidated $191 million in long positions, and the average cost basis for corporate treasuries is right around 80,000. So if 80,000 goes again, it won’t just be a technical level breaking—institutions’ books will be turning red too.
My position is simple: this week, I’m keeping my eyes fixed on 83,000, the invalidation line. Is Cowen’s call a genuine roadmap or just a paper tiger meant to scare people? We’ll find out when PCE comes out on Thursday. Just my personal opinion, not financial advice—which side are you betting on this week: $BTC reclaiming 83,000 first and invalidating the bear call, or testing 77,876 first? Pick a side in the comments.
#USQ3GDPAndSeptemberPCEDueNextWeek #BTC #FOMC
