The Fed is scaring everyone again ::
US inflation came in at 3.7% in September, versus expectations of 3.6%. The market immediately worried that the Fed would raise interest rates again on Oct. 28. US bond yields rose to their highest level in 24 years. Risk assets like BTC were immediately sold off ..
A lot of traders opened Long positions for “Uptober.” When prices fell, they got liquidated. In early October alone, $1.17 billion worth of BTC long positions were liquidated—the most since June. On another app, open interest fell by $200 million in 7 hours
Even though ETFs saw inflows of $524.8 million on Oct. 22, the total for October is still a net outflow of around $617 million. So institutional demand isn’t strong yet ..
And the question is...
How low will it go?
$81,500 is a critical floor. This is the average purchase price across all U.S. spot ETFs. A daily close below this level would be dangerous...
If it breaks down, Glassnode says the next support levels are $77,600* (the True Market Mean Price) and $74,800 (the average price paid by short-term holders).
In an extreme bearish scenario considered by some analysts, if $80,000 fails to hold, it could open the way back to the mid-year range of $40K–$46K. But this is only a worst-case scenario, not the consensus.
THE KEY 👇
The base-case scenario being widely discussed now is that BTC is forming a bottom in October around the low $80Ks, similar to the bottom at $58K–$60K last June. Many are waiting for the outcome of the Oct. 27–28 FOMC meeting and the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, because volatility usually eases somewhat after the FOMC decision and the election are over, creating an opportunity for BTC to rebound to $95K...
