Market reactions during earnings season, noted one by one
There’s no new narrative in the U.S. stock market today, just price movements.
These macro figures are current prices, not recollections:
Crude oil 102 (5-day +4.58%, Yahoo)
Gold 4,020 (5-day -3.13%, Yahoo)
Nasdaq 25,955 (5-day -0.71%, Yahoo)
So: S&P 500 -0.47%, Nasdaq -0.71%—the indexes aren’t diverging. If they aren’t diverging, don’t make up sector stories. Wait for the next surge in volume.
Crypto: BTC 79976 (-0.81%), funding rate 0.0078% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH is down 1.29% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -0.81%; exchange rate 0.02894. Funds are rotating into BTC, so I’m sitting out altcoins for now.
VIX is now 19.65. If it rises above 18, I’ll cut my futures position in half. I’m not going to argue with the U.S. market’s closing price.
My positions: I only buy pullbacks, not breakouts. If the structure holds, I can keep a core position; adding requires waiting for a pullback level.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are left out.
Are you currently in cash waiting for a pullback, or already on board?
#宏观 #BTC #U.S. stocks
Takeaway: Keep watching for sustained large ETF net inflows; treat a one-day spike as noise.
Inspiration: The dollar has strengthened over the past 5 days, and BTC is still rising: treat it as an independent move, but discount its staying power.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are marked with dashes):
BTC 79,976 -0.81% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,314 -1.29% ETH/BTC 0.02894
S&P 500 7,624 -0.47% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,955 -0.71% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.02% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.65 +13.52% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0078% Open interest 7.52B (24h +0.47) Long/short 2.2258 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks - Google News.” I only take it as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the main text.
These are my personal views. Figures are from the sources listed in the main text. This is not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
There’s no new narrative in the U.S. stock market today, just price movements.
These macro figures are current prices, not recollections:
Crude oil 102 (5-day +4.58%, Yahoo)
Gold 4,020 (5-day -3.13%, Yahoo)
Nasdaq 25,955 (5-day -0.71%, Yahoo)
So: S&P 500 -0.47%, Nasdaq -0.71%—the indexes aren’t diverging. If they aren’t diverging, don’t make up sector stories. Wait for the next surge in volume.
Crypto: BTC 79976 (-0.81%), funding rate 0.0078% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH is down 1.29% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -0.81%; exchange rate 0.02894. Funds are rotating into BTC, so I’m sitting out altcoins for now.
VIX is now 19.65. If it rises above 18, I’ll cut my futures position in half. I’m not going to argue with the U.S. market’s closing price.
My positions: I only buy pullbacks, not breakouts. If the structure holds, I can keep a core position; adding requires waiting for a pullback level.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are left out.
Are you currently in cash waiting for a pullback, or already on board?
#宏观 #BTC #U.S. stocks
Takeaway: Keep watching for sustained large ETF net inflows; treat a one-day spike as noise.
Inspiration: The dollar has strengthened over the past 5 days, and BTC is still rising: treat it as an independent move, but discount its staying power.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are marked with dashes):
BTC 79,976 -0.81% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,314 -1.29% ETH/BTC 0.02894
S&P 500 7,624 -0.47% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,955 -0.71% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.02% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.65 +13.52% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0078% Open interest 7.52B (24h +0.47) Long/short 2.2258 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks - Google News.” I only take it as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the main text.
These are my personal views. Figures are from the sources listed in the main text. This is not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL