More than 200 AI neoclouds have been called out by Musk as facing a “guppy-style death,” and Gartner’s numbers are even more brutal: by 2030, over 80% of specialized cloud service providers will be unable to operate independently. I’ve been watching this figure for a while, because it’s tied to the mining sector by the same thread—the past couple of years, mining companies have been talking up AI computing power like crazy, but the data centers are still the same, the electricity is still the same; change the label and suddenly the valuation changes.
The problem is that supply is rushing in, while demand comes from just a handful of big customers. More than 200 companies are competing for the same batch of orders. When the price war starts, it won’t be Nvidia that goes under first, but the middlemen who put up mining rigs as collateral to get GPUs. $BTC 24-hour trading volume hit $700 million, and it was still down 0.8%—the market’s attention isn’t on this at all.
When this wave of neoclouds starts liquidating, who will end up with the H100s being dumped on the market?
The problem is that supply is rushing in, while demand comes from just a handful of big customers. More than 200 companies are competing for the same batch of orders. When the price war starts, it won’t be Nvidia that goes under first, but the middlemen who put up mining rigs as collateral to get GPUs. $BTC 24-hour trading volume hit $700 million, and it was still down 0.8%—the market’s attention isn’t on this at all.
When this wave of neoclouds starts liquidating, who will end up with the H100s being dumped on the market?
