BTC is stuck around $80,000, but the real pressure may not be coming from crypto—it may be on the oil price chart
BTC has been grinding between $79,600 and $80,400 today, while ETH has hovered around $2,300 to $2,327. Nine of the top ten coins are down. There hasn’t really been any fresh bad news within crypto; the pressure is coming from outside: Brent crude briefly touched around $117 on Friday, then fell back to the $110–$115 range on Monday, but remains elevated. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has also reached 5%.
The chain reaction is straightforward: high oil prices push up inflation expectations. Once those expectations rise, markets are less likely to back away from pricing in a December Fed rate hike, so risk assets are naturally the first to lose liquidity. Gold is trading around $4,008 today, after falling about 4% last week. Even safe-haven assets are under pressure, suggesting this isn’t a problem unique to crypto, but a broader pullback in risk appetite.
Interestingly, the Fed will most likely hold steady on Wednesday (at 3.75%–4.00%). But what the market is really watching isn’t whether it moves this time—it’s whether it moves in December. If oil stays elevated, that would strengthen the case for the hawks. If oil spikes and then retreats, cooling inflation expectations along with it, the pressure around the $80,000 level could ease considerably.
So this week, don’t just watch BTC’s candlestick chart—keep an eye on oil prices too. Do you think oil holding above $110 will turn a December rate hike from “possible” into “likely”? Or are these spikes followed by pullbacks the norm, with prices unable to stay up for more than a few days?
$BTC
BTC has been grinding between $79,600 and $80,400 today, while ETH has hovered around $2,300 to $2,327. Nine of the top ten coins are down. There hasn’t really been any fresh bad news within crypto; the pressure is coming from outside: Brent crude briefly touched around $117 on Friday, then fell back to the $110–$115 range on Monday, but remains elevated. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has also reached 5%.
The chain reaction is straightforward: high oil prices push up inflation expectations. Once those expectations rise, markets are less likely to back away from pricing in a December Fed rate hike, so risk assets are naturally the first to lose liquidity. Gold is trading around $4,008 today, after falling about 4% last week. Even safe-haven assets are under pressure, suggesting this isn’t a problem unique to crypto, but a broader pullback in risk appetite.
Interestingly, the Fed will most likely hold steady on Wednesday (at 3.75%–4.00%). But what the market is really watching isn’t whether it moves this time—it’s whether it moves in December. If oil stays elevated, that would strengthen the case for the hawks. If oil spikes and then retreats, cooling inflation expectations along with it, the pressure around the $80,000 level could ease considerably.
So this week, don’t just watch BTC’s candlestick chart—keep an eye on oil prices too. Do you think oil holding above $110 will turn a December rate hike from “possible” into “likely”? Or are these spikes followed by pullbacks the norm, with prices unable to stay up for more than a few days?
$BTC