Repeated tug-of-war at the 80K level; bulls and bears deadlocked ahead of the FOMC
BTC is around 80,151, down 0.91% over 24 hours; ETH is around 2,330, down 1.23%. Over the weekend, BTC slid in steps below 80,000, briefly hitting a low of 79,200 before barely recovering. A rebound by bulls toward 80,900–81,000 was rejected again. The Fear & Greed Index is at 50, in neutral territory.
Market structure: bears have the upper hand, and the rebound looks like a corrective bounce. The BTC rebound on the 1-hour chart is weak, with price continuing to trade below the medium- and long-term moving averages. The MACD histogram is expanding below the zero line, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is still building. After retreating from its high of 2,526, ETH has formed a bearish moving-average alignment, with each rebound reaching a lower high. No clear reversal signal has emerged yet.
Fund flows: ETF flows turned positive for the week, but remain negative for the month. BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $301 million last week, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows. However, roughly $774 million was pulled out on Thursday and Friday, giving back most of the $1.07 billion in inflows seen midweek. October flows remain net negative at about $314 million. ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $221 million last week, bringing October outflows to around $1.18 billion. The gap in fund flows between the two assets has not narrowed.
Macro: The consensus is that the FOMC will hold rates steady, but the “hawkish tone” of its statement is the wildcard. Markets price in a greater than 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged in October. Of the 100 economists surveyed by Reuters, 94 expect no change. But institutions such as DWS believe a “hawkish hold” is more likely than a direct rate hike, with December still the next window to watch for a hike. US Q3 GDP and September core PCE data are also due this week, so the high-volatility window remains open.
Liquidation danger zones: There is more liquidation risk below than above. If ETH falls below 2,239, the cumulative liquidation intensity for long positions across major CEXs would reach $580 million; by contrast, a break above 2,464 would put short-position liquidation intensity at $526 million. If BTC breaks above 84,240, short-position liquidation intensity would reach $787 million. For now, however, bulls have continued to be flushed out below 80,000, so short-term pressure remains on the long side.
Key levels: For BTC, 79,170 is the first level to watch below; a decisive break would put 78,000–78,600 in focus. Overhead, 80,500–81,000 is resistance, and a move back above this zone is needed to signal stabilization. For ETH, 2,280 is a medium-term line of defense, overlapping with the liquidation cluster at 2,239; 2,380 is short-term resistance.
In a nutshell: The bearish structure remains intact, ETF flows are still negative for the month, and a trend-defining breakout is unlikely ahead of the FOMC. Don’t chase shorts or try to catch the bottom. Wait for BTC to show signs of holding near 79,170, or reclaim 81,000 on strong volume, before considering a small long position. Keep risk exposure low ahead of the decision.
BTC is around 80,151, down 0.91% over 24 hours; ETH is around 2,330, down 1.23%. Over the weekend, BTC slid in steps below 80,000, briefly hitting a low of 79,200 before barely recovering. A rebound by bulls toward 80,900–81,000 was rejected again. The Fear & Greed Index is at 50, in neutral territory.
Market structure: bears have the upper hand, and the rebound looks like a corrective bounce. The BTC rebound on the 1-hour chart is weak, with price continuing to trade below the medium- and long-term moving averages. The MACD histogram is expanding below the zero line, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is still building. After retreating from its high of 2,526, ETH has formed a bearish moving-average alignment, with each rebound reaching a lower high. No clear reversal signal has emerged yet.
Fund flows: ETF flows turned positive for the week, but remain negative for the month. BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $301 million last week, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows. However, roughly $774 million was pulled out on Thursday and Friday, giving back most of the $1.07 billion in inflows seen midweek. October flows remain net negative at about $314 million. ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $221 million last week, bringing October outflows to around $1.18 billion. The gap in fund flows between the two assets has not narrowed.
Macro: The consensus is that the FOMC will hold rates steady, but the “hawkish tone” of its statement is the wildcard. Markets price in a greater than 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged in October. Of the 100 economists surveyed by Reuters, 94 expect no change. But institutions such as DWS believe a “hawkish hold” is more likely than a direct rate hike, with December still the next window to watch for a hike. US Q3 GDP and September core PCE data are also due this week, so the high-volatility window remains open.
Liquidation danger zones: There is more liquidation risk below than above. If ETH falls below 2,239, the cumulative liquidation intensity for long positions across major CEXs would reach $580 million; by contrast, a break above 2,464 would put short-position liquidation intensity at $526 million. If BTC breaks above 84,240, short-position liquidation intensity would reach $787 million. For now, however, bulls have continued to be flushed out below 80,000, so short-term pressure remains on the long side.
Key levels: For BTC, 79,170 is the first level to watch below; a decisive break would put 78,000–78,600 in focus. Overhead, 80,500–81,000 is resistance, and a move back above this zone is needed to signal stabilization. For ETH, 2,280 is a medium-term line of defense, overlapping with the liquidation cluster at 2,239; 2,380 is short-term resistance.
In a nutshell: The bearish structure remains intact, ETF flows are still negative for the month, and a trend-defining breakout is unlikely ahead of the FOMC. Don’t chase shorts or try to catch the bottom. Wait for BTC to show signs of holding near 79,170, or reclaim 81,000 on strong volume, before considering a small long position. Keep risk exposure low ahead of the decision.