$BTC has fallen below $80,000 again, but don’t panic just yet: $80,000 is only a psychological threshold; $79,220 is the real line of defense
Today’s market: $BTC dipped to around $79,368 intraday and is now hovering around $79,900, down about 1% over 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index fell to just above 40, entering fear territory and hitting a nearly three-month low.
Why it’s falling: The FOMC decision is due on October 28. Add this week’s earnings reports from tech giants and the 10-year Treasury yield holding near the elevated 5% level, and institutions are cutting risk exposure ahead of these events. This is deleveraging, not a collapse in fundamentals.
My take:
1. As long as $79,220 holds, this is still bottoming near the lower end of the range, not a breakdown. Last weekend’s low was $79,220; holding that level is a prerequisite for any rebound attempt.
2. If $79,220 gives way, the next downside target is around $77,600. Don’t try to buy the dip halfway down.
3. A move back above $80,700–$81,200 would signal that the decline has stabilized. Only after reclaiming $82,100 and holding there for 1–2 days would it make sense to talk about a reversal.
In short: A break below $80,000 isn’t scary in itself. The risk is treating a psychological threshold as a trading signal. On the eve of the FOMC, ride out the volatility rather than betting on a direction; the plan to scale in between $76,000 and $80,000 remains unchanged.
Today’s market: $BTC dipped to around $79,368 intraday and is now hovering around $79,900, down about 1% over 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index fell to just above 40, entering fear territory and hitting a nearly three-month low.
Why it’s falling: The FOMC decision is due on October 28. Add this week’s earnings reports from tech giants and the 10-year Treasury yield holding near the elevated 5% level, and institutions are cutting risk exposure ahead of these events. This is deleveraging, not a collapse in fundamentals.
My take:
1. As long as $79,220 holds, this is still bottoming near the lower end of the range, not a breakdown. Last weekend’s low was $79,220; holding that level is a prerequisite for any rebound attempt.
2. If $79,220 gives way, the next downside target is around $77,600. Don’t try to buy the dip halfway down.
3. A move back above $80,700–$81,200 would signal that the decline has stabilized. Only after reclaiming $82,100 and holding there for 1–2 days would it make sense to talk about a reversal.
In short: A break below $80,000 isn’t scary in itself. The risk is treating a psychological threshold as a trading signal. On the eve of the FOMC, ride out the volatility rather than betting on a direction; the plan to scale in between $76,000 and $80,000 remains unchanged.