The U.S. military is ready to launch a large-scale operation against Iran within 96 hours, but Trump has not given the order. Geopolitical risk premiums are still weighing on crypto markets.
CNN reported on October 26, citing two U.S. officials, that U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East are prepared to launch a potentially large-scale new military operation against Iran within 96 hours if Trump gives the order. The operation would go beyond the previous “status quo” strikes on targets such as radar systems and launchers that can be quickly rebuilt. One official described it as “a large-scale operation.”
Key points:
- Current and former officials familiar with internal military planning discussions believe the question is not whether an order will be given, but when. It could come before the end of the year, most likely after the U.S. midterm elections.
- At the same time, Trump denied on Sunday that a strike would take place that day, saying there were no plans for one. In other words, the current situation is “ready for action, but no order given”—the fighting has not begun.
- Geopolitical risks are still being felt in the markets: Brent crude closed at around $116.72 last Friday, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and energy supplies remain the market’s most sensitive variables. BTC was still fluctuating around $80,000 early on October 26, and ETH briefly fell below $2,300. Risk assets remain vulnerable to sudden news.
My view: neutral on $BTC in the short term. News of military readiness has raised expectations of volatility and demand for safe havens, but “no order given” and the denial of a strike that day limit the extent of any escalation in panic. In the short term, range-bound trading is more likely than a one-way trend.
Sources: CNN; ChinaPulse, citing Trump’s remarks on Sunday. Oil price is the previous Friday’s closing price. For reference only; this is not investment advice.
#美伊局势 #地缘风险 #BTC
Tap the tag to view real-time prices: Do you think this standoff will escalate after the midterm elections, or return to the negotiating table?
CNN reported on October 26, citing two U.S. officials, that U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East are prepared to launch a potentially large-scale new military operation against Iran within 96 hours if Trump gives the order. The operation would go beyond the previous “status quo” strikes on targets such as radar systems and launchers that can be quickly rebuilt. One official described it as “a large-scale operation.”
Key points:
- Current and former officials familiar with internal military planning discussions believe the question is not whether an order will be given, but when. It could come before the end of the year, most likely after the U.S. midterm elections.
- At the same time, Trump denied on Sunday that a strike would take place that day, saying there were no plans for one. In other words, the current situation is “ready for action, but no order given”—the fighting has not begun.
- Geopolitical risks are still being felt in the markets: Brent crude closed at around $116.72 last Friday, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and energy supplies remain the market’s most sensitive variables. BTC was still fluctuating around $80,000 early on October 26, and ETH briefly fell below $2,300. Risk assets remain vulnerable to sudden news.
My view: neutral on $BTC in the short term. News of military readiness has raised expectations of volatility and demand for safe havens, but “no order given” and the denial of a strike that day limit the extent of any escalation in panic. In the short term, range-bound trading is more likely than a one-way trend.
Sources: CNN; ChinaPulse, citing Trump’s remarks on Sunday. Oil price is the previous Friday’s closing price. For reference only; this is not investment advice.
#美伊局势 #地缘风险 #BTC
Tap the tag to view real-time prices: Do you think this standoff will escalate after the midterm elections, or return to the negotiating table?
