#市场定价美联储下周加息概率仅10%
🏛️ 大环境怎么影响币圈，进群聊
This Goldman Sachs report makes for somewhat chilly reading.
No move in October, then another hike in December.
That could be the final hike of this rate-hiking cycle.
The logic is straightforward.
Since September, the financial conditions index has tightened by about 30 basis points.
Goldman says that’s not enough to match a rate hike.
So don’t take the tightening as a sign that the cycle is over.
Looking ahead, inflation should ease in 2027.
Tariffs, energy shocks, and AI-related price increases are gradually fading.
In the baseline scenario, there won’t be another hike in March.
Goldman’s exact words: rates stay on hold for the rest of the year.
The wildcard is still the Middle East.
If oil prices keep getting pushed higher, the outlook will have to be redrawn.
Any flare-up in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz could change the whole script.
For crypto, this is a slow squeeze.
With rates pinned high for a full year, high-leverage strategies are getting harder to pull off.
Investors would rather wait for certainty than bet on a direction.
Markets put the odds of a rate hike next week at just 10%.
Goldman is betting on one in December.
The gap between those two dates is the risk premium for the next two months.
Do you trust the market’s odds or the investment bank? Let’s talk in the comments.
🏛️ 大环境怎么影响币圈，进群聊
This Goldman Sachs report makes for somewhat chilly reading.
No move in October, then another hike in December.
That could be the final hike of this rate-hiking cycle.
The logic is straightforward.
Since September, the financial conditions index has tightened by about 30 basis points.
Goldman says that’s not enough to match a rate hike.
So don’t take the tightening as a sign that the cycle is over.
Looking ahead, inflation should ease in 2027.
Tariffs, energy shocks, and AI-related price increases are gradually fading.
In the baseline scenario, there won’t be another hike in March.
Goldman’s exact words: rates stay on hold for the rest of the year.
The wildcard is still the Middle East.
If oil prices keep getting pushed higher, the outlook will have to be redrawn.
Any flare-up in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz could change the whole script.
For crypto, this is a slow squeeze.
With rates pinned high for a full year, high-leverage strategies are getting harder to pull off.
Investors would rather wait for certainty than bet on a direction.
Markets put the odds of a rate hike next week at just 10%.
Goldman is betting on one in December.
The gap between those two dates is the risk premium for the next two months.
Do you trust the market’s odds or the investment bank? Let’s talk in the comments.
