Thursday’s Fed Meeting: Rates on Hold, but the Real “Bombshell” Is What Powell Says!
Guys, don’t just focus on whether the Fed hikes rates at Thursday’s meeting.
The market has already priced in the expectations. CME data makes it clear: rates are overwhelmingly likely to stay unchanged this time. And since there’s no dot plot or new economic projections at this meeting, the decision itself is a foregone conclusion. The real main event is Powell’s remarks afterward!
What’s the market focused on right now? The very high odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. This meeting will set the tone for year-end.
Let’s walk through two scenarios:
If Powell holds a tough, hawkish line and hints that more hikes are coming, Treasury yields and the dollar will shoot straight up. U.S. stocks and Bitcoin, as risk assets, will inevitably come under pressure.
If Powell softens his tone and punts the rate decision to “upcoming economic data,” money that fled early for safety will quickly flow back in, and the market will likely see a relief rebound.
See what’s going on? The market is already positioning itself around these expectations. Until the announcement is out, major coins are unlikely to make any big moves of their own; they’ll just keep burning time in a choppy range.
Trading advice:
Don’t go all-in on a directional bet before the announcement. It’s incredibly easy to get whipsawed. Be patient, wait until Powell has finished speaking, see which way the money is flowing, and then ride the move.
Keep a close eye on the market Thursday night. Don’t make a move until you see the rabbit!
Guys, don’t just focus on whether the Fed hikes rates at Thursday’s meeting.
The market has already priced in the expectations. CME data makes it clear: rates are overwhelmingly likely to stay unchanged this time. And since there’s no dot plot or new economic projections at this meeting, the decision itself is a foregone conclusion. The real main event is Powell’s remarks afterward!
What’s the market focused on right now? The very high odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. This meeting will set the tone for year-end.
Let’s walk through two scenarios:
If Powell holds a tough, hawkish line and hints that more hikes are coming, Treasury yields and the dollar will shoot straight up. U.S. stocks and Bitcoin, as risk assets, will inevitably come under pressure.
If Powell softens his tone and punts the rate decision to “upcoming economic data,” money that fled early for safety will quickly flow back in, and the market will likely see a relief rebound.
See what’s going on? The market is already positioning itself around these expectations. Until the announcement is out, major coins are unlikely to make any big moves of their own; they’ll just keep burning time in a choppy range.
Trading advice:
Don’t go all-in on a directional bet before the announcement. It’s incredibly easy to get whipsawed. Be patient, wait until Powell has finished speaking, see which way the money is flowing, and then ride the move.
Keep a close eye on the market Thursday night. Don’t make a move until you see the rabbit!