Cautious Ahead of the FOMC; Bearish Structure Remains Unchanged
BTC is near 80,000 and ETH near 2,330. After briefly hitting a five-week low over the weekend, BTC barely recovered to 80,000. The Fear & Greed Index is at 45, reflecting subdued sentiment.
Market action and leverage: The technical picture remains bearish, with moving averages trending downward and rebounds lacking momentum. Long positions accounted for over 70% of liquidations across the market in the past 24 hours. Note: The cost basis for a dense cluster of BTC net longs is 81,993, and around 64% of longs are currently underwater. Further declines could easily trigger cascading liquidations and create a chain of selling pressure.
Flows: BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of 301 million this week, ending a streak of outflows. However, 770 million was pulled over Thursday and Friday, bringing October's cumulative flows back into negative territory. Institutions are proactively reducing exposure ahead of the FOMC. ETH ETFs remain weak, with nearly 1.18 billion in cumulative outflows for October. The gap in fund flows between BTC and ETH has yet to narrow.
Macro: The probability that the FOMC will hold rates steady is 92%, but expectations of a December rate hike are above 80%. Persistently high oil prices continue to weigh on risk assets.
Key levels:
BTC: 79,170 is key support; 80,500–81,000 is resistance.
ETH: 2,280 is support; 2,380 is resistance.
In a nutshell: Long positions are crowded and underwater, while ETF outflows picked up toward the end of the week. A breakout ahead of the FOMC looks unlikely. Don't chase shorts or buy the dip; wait for BTC to stabilize at 79,170 or reclaim 81,000 on strong volume before cautiously trying a small long position. Keep position sizes under control ahead of the decision.
BTC is near 80,000 and ETH near 2,330. After briefly hitting a five-week low over the weekend, BTC barely recovered to 80,000. The Fear & Greed Index is at 45, reflecting subdued sentiment.
Market action and leverage: The technical picture remains bearish, with moving averages trending downward and rebounds lacking momentum. Long positions accounted for over 70% of liquidations across the market in the past 24 hours. Note: The cost basis for a dense cluster of BTC net longs is 81,993, and around 64% of longs are currently underwater. Further declines could easily trigger cascading liquidations and create a chain of selling pressure.
Flows: BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of 301 million this week, ending a streak of outflows. However, 770 million was pulled over Thursday and Friday, bringing October's cumulative flows back into negative territory. Institutions are proactively reducing exposure ahead of the FOMC. ETH ETFs remain weak, with nearly 1.18 billion in cumulative outflows for October. The gap in fund flows between BTC and ETH has yet to narrow.
Macro: The probability that the FOMC will hold rates steady is 92%, but expectations of a December rate hike are above 80%. Persistently high oil prices continue to weigh on risk assets.
Key levels:
BTC: 79,170 is key support; 80,500–81,000 is resistance.
ETH: 2,280 is support; 2,380 is resistance.
In a nutshell: Long positions are crowded and underwater, while ETF outflows picked up toward the end of the week. A breakout ahead of the FOMC looks unlikely. Don't chase shorts or buy the dip; wait for BTC to stabilize at 79,170 or reclaim 81,000 on strong volume before cautiously trying a small long position. Keep position sizes under control ahead of the decision.