#美国消费者信心维持历史第二低 5 May just hit an all-time low, and now it’s fallen to the second-lowest level ever 📉—hitting bottom twice in a year is more alarming than a single sharp plunge
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 44.8 in May, its lowest reading ever, and 48.0 in October, its second-lowest. The two readings were just five months apart. A single sharp drop can be blamed on a particular event, but hitting rock bottom twice within five months suggests the recovery in consumer confidence was illusory, and that gloom is the norm.
And this time, it’s not just “expectations” that are weak: the “current economic conditions” component also fell to 46.7. That means people’s sense of “how things are going right now” is almost as bleak as it was at the worst point in May. The sentiment index is a leading economic indicator, and repeated lows suggest recession fears will continue to grow, while the Fed’s policy path will remain a subject of fierce debate.
For ordinary investors, a pattern of “repeatedly hitting bottom” deserves attention: it’s often not a signal that the market has bottomed, but a signal of the trend. This isn’t a good time to bet on a rebound $SPY #消费者信心 #US stocks
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 44.8 in May, its lowest reading ever, and 48.0 in October, its second-lowest. The two readings were just five months apart. A single sharp drop can be blamed on a particular event, but hitting rock bottom twice within five months suggests the recovery in consumer confidence was illusory, and that gloom is the norm.
And this time, it’s not just “expectations” that are weak: the “current economic conditions” component also fell to 46.7. That means people’s sense of “how things are going right now” is almost as bleak as it was at the worst point in May. The sentiment index is a leading economic indicator, and repeated lows suggest recession fears will continue to grow, while the Fed’s policy path will remain a subject of fierce debate.
For ordinary investors, a pattern of “repeatedly hitting bottom” deserves attention: it’s often not a signal that the market has bottomed, but a signal of the trend. This isn’t a good time to bet on a rebound $SPY #消费者信心 #US stocks
