Keep a close eye on several key variables this week: the FOMC decision on October 27–28, the election on November 3, oil prices and the situation in the Middle East, as well as daily ETF fund flows.
Scenario 1, 40% probability: Support holds near 79K, with $BTC trading within the 79K–84K range. This depends on bearish momentum easing, ETF inflows returning, and support at 77K holding firm.
Scenario 2, 40% probability: 79K breaks decisively, prompting a test of 77K, followed by choppy trading within the 77K–82K range. Persistently hawkish rate expectations and continued ETF outflows are the main sources of pressure.
Scenario 3, 20% probability: The market stabilizes, rebounds, and breaks above 82K, going on to test 85K. This would require sustained, substantial ETF inflows and some easing of tensions in the Middle East.
Overall, there is an 80% chance that prices will fluctuate within the broader 77K–84K range for most of this week.
The spot strategy is simple: focus on building positions near 77K, avoid blindly chasing prices near 80K, and wait for signs of stabilization before acting. Also, keep some funds in reserve in case the market falls further to 73K–75K.
The more intense the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the more important it is to keep your hands steady and wait patiently for a genuine signal of a comeback before deploying your capital.
Scenario 1, 40% probability: Support holds near 79K, with $BTC trading within the 79K–84K range. This depends on bearish momentum easing, ETF inflows returning, and support at 77K holding firm.
Scenario 2, 40% probability: 79K breaks decisively, prompting a test of 77K, followed by choppy trading within the 77K–82K range. Persistently hawkish rate expectations and continued ETF outflows are the main sources of pressure.
Scenario 3, 20% probability: The market stabilizes, rebounds, and breaks above 82K, going on to test 85K. This would require sustained, substantial ETF inflows and some easing of tensions in the Middle East.
Overall, there is an 80% chance that prices will fluctuate within the broader 77K–84K range for most of this week.
The spot strategy is simple: focus on building positions near 77K, avoid blindly chasing prices near 80K, and wait for signs of stabilization before acting. Also, keep some funds in reserve in case the market falls further to 73K–75K.
The more intense the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the more important it is to keep your hands steady and wait patiently for a genuine signal of a comeback before deploying your capital.