Goldman Sachs said tight refined-product supplies could persist through 2027 as refineries carry out deferred maintenance, potentially limiting exports. According to Sina Finance, analysts Filippo Cuscito and Daan Struyven wrote in an October 25 research note that several U.S. maintenance plans had been postponed, while globally planned refinery maintenance was down 1.7 million barrels per day year over year. India and South Korea, major refined-product exporters, are scheduled for heavy maintenance in the second quarter of 2027, which could reduce exports, particularly of diesel and jet fuel. Fuel inventories at major hubs remain low, leaving limited room to absorb additional supply disruptions. ARA jet fuel inventories fell 56% year over year as local refineries prioritized diesel production. The slow recovery of refined-product exports from the Persian Gulf is also supporting oil prices, while ship-to-ship transfers have maintained crude oil transportation. Such transfers are harder to apply to refined products because they are more flammable, have more varied specifications, and are more difficult to transfer outside the Persian Gulf.
