The ETF weekly tally turned positive, but don’t celebrate just yet—the last two days saw institutions pull out $774 million. ⚠️

U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $301 million last week, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows. But here’s the breakdown: $1.075 billion flowed in over the first three trading days, followed by $636 million in outflows on Thursday alone and another $138 million on Friday. IBIT alone saw $110 million in redemptions. Buying was aggressive, but the money left even faster—this was position-cutting ahead of the FOMC, not position-building.

Three things will set the direction this week: the Fed decision on October 28 (announced in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time); about $10.95 billion in BTC options on Deribit expiring October 30 (put/call open-interest ratio: 0.55); and oil prices nearing $116, continuing to weigh on inflation expectations.

$BTC is currently around $80,100, having recovered after dipping below $80,000 over the weekend. Reclaiming $82,550 would signal a recovery; a break below $79,700 would put the early-week low back in focus. ETH is weaker, with ETF net outflows of $221 million last week; $2,350 is its critical level.

My stance: wait and see, leaning defensive—money is pulling out and major events lie ahead, so chasing a rally offers poor odds.

Data as of today; not investment advice.

This decision week, are you cutting your exposure in advance, or keeping your powder dry until the decision is announced?

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