In a nutshell: BTC briefly fell below 80,000 over the weekend, then recovered. With the Fed’s rate decision early Wednesday and a $10 billion options expiry on Friday, I see 80,000 as this week’s dividing line between bulls and bears. I wouldn’t chase a rally unless BTC gets back above 85,000. 🧭
📊 1. $BTC: Holding above 80,000, but ETF flows are “swinging”
Current price: around **$80,195**, down **0.76%** over 24 hours and **2.03%** over 7 days.
Over the past 30 days, the high was around 87,086 and the low around 79,263; over the past 7 days, it fluctuated between 79,263 and 84,808.
Key levels:
✅ Support: **79,200–80,000** (the 30-day low plus a psychological level, and an area where protective put positions for month-end options are concentrated). A decisive break below this level would put the next support near 78,000.
⛔ Resistance: **81,300–81,700** (around the market-estimated average cost basis of ETF holdings and the 50-day moving average), followed by **84,800–85,000** (where last week's rally failed).
Fund flows: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about **$301 million** last week, ending two weeks of net outflows. But the flow was very "choppy": about $1.07 billion flowed in from Monday to Wednesday, followed by $636 million in outflows on Thursday (the largest single-day outflow since June), then another $138 million outflow on Friday. October is still showing net outflows of about $310 million overall.
👉 My take: Institutions aren't staying away; they're just "moving from one position to another" and aren't willing to commit heavily before the macro events play out.
📉 II. $ETH: Weaker than BTC, with funds continuing to flow out
Current price: around **$2,332**, 24h **-1.02%**, 7-day **-2.79%**.
30-day range: 2,287–2,768; 7-day range: 2,287–2,519.
Support is at **2,287–2,300**, with resistance at **2,500–2,520**.
Spot ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with about $220 million in outflows last week and roughly $1.18 billion in October so far. Until funds return, I don't expect the weak ETH/BTC trend to reverse.
🔥 III. Altcoin strength: A clear divergence
Strong:
• ZEC: Around $1,211, up **8.28%** over 7 days. It rose while the broader market fell, and related ETF products have seen steady inflows in recent days. It's one of the most independent performers this week.
• ENA: 24h **+5.94%**, 7-day **+11.14%**, the best 7-day performer among the top 40 by market cap.
• QNT: 24h **+5.33%**, with volume rising against the trend.
• $BNB: Around $739.6, up **2.5%** over 7 days. It's one of the few major coins with a positive 7-day return, once again demonstrating its resilience.
Weak:
• HBAR is down **9.44%** over 7 days, AVAX **7.85%**, ADA **7.03%**, and SUI **6.62%**. High-beta layer-1 tokens have fallen the most in the pullback.
• SOL: Around $101.4, down **2.46%** over 7 days. The $100 level is a critical short-term threshold.
😐 IV. Sentiment and risk
The Fear & Greed Index is at **50 (Neutral)**, compared with 54 and 51 over the previous two days. Sentiment is neither fearful nor particularly greedy.
BTC's market-cap dominance is around **60%**. Funds are still concentrating in market leaders, so conditions aren't yet in place for a broad altcoin rally.
⚠️ Risk factors: More than $800 million in liquidations occurred over the weekend, mostly among long positions, showing that leverage hasn't been fully flushed out. Expect a higher chance of sharp wicks around macro events; futures traders should be sure to manage leverage.
📅 V. Key events to watch this week (Beijing time)
1️⃣ **October 29, 2:00 a.m.**: Fed rate decision, followed by the Chair's press conference at 2:30 a.m. Markets almost unanimously expect rates to remain unchanged. The key is whether the comments on rate hikes in December will be hawkish.
2️⃣ **October 29 evening**: Earnings reports from major tech companies are due. BTC has been strongly correlated with tech stocks recently.
3️⃣ **October 29, 8:30 p.m.**: U.S. third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation data.
4️⃣ **October 30**: Approximately $11.7 billion worth of BTC options expire and settle.
🎯 My approach: Above 80,000, focus on observing; below 79,200, play defense first. If it reclaims 81,700 on strong volume, then look toward 85,000. Before the macro events play out, I'd rather miss an opportunity than make the wrong move.
💬 Let's hear your thoughts: After the Fed decision, do you think BTC will hit **85,000** first or break below **78,000** first? Leave your answer in the comments, and I'll check back on Thursday to see who got it right!
#BTC #ETH #山寨币 #行情分析 #FederalReserve
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk.