Bitcoin is heading toward a third consecutive weekly decline, even as U.S. spot ETFs ended the week in positive territory (+$301.2M). At around 18:50 UTC this Sunday, 25/10, $BTC is trading at around $80,580 on Kraken, about 5 hours before the 00:00 UTC close.
On the price front, the pattern is clear: Sunday closes of $86,510 (04/10), $83,676 (11/10), and $82,002 (18/10). The week opened at $82,002, reached $84,840 on 21/10, then hit a low of $79,121 on 24/10. Preliminary result: down about 1.7%.
On the ETF front, according to Decrypt’s tracker: +$526.7M on Monday, +$23.2M on Tuesday, +$524.8M on Wednesday, followed by -$635.6M on Thursday and -$137.9M on Friday. The week is still positive, but October remains in the red, at around -$314M. ETH ETFs, meanwhile, are down about $1.18B for the month.
My take: ETF money came in early in the week, as the price climbed toward $84,800, and flowed back out as soon as the price broke down. This isn’t a buyer absorbing the decline; it’s a flow that follows the price. OKX funding remains neutral (+0.0056%), so there’s no visible excess leverage to flush out.
What tonight’s close could tell us:
- Above $82,002, the streak of lower closes ends—a level that seems unlikely given the distance.
- Below $81,164, it would be the lowest weekly close since 13/09 ($76,800).
- The week’s low, $79,121, remains the level to watch ahead of the Fed on 28/10.
Question: In your view, do Monday-to-Wednesday ETF inflows matter more than Thursday-to-Friday outflows, or is it the closing price that decides?
#Bitcoin #ETF
On the price front, the pattern is clear: Sunday closes of $86,510 (04/10), $83,676 (11/10), and $82,002 (18/10). The week opened at $82,002, reached $84,840 on 21/10, then hit a low of $79,121 on 24/10. Preliminary result: down about 1.7%.
On the ETF front, according to Decrypt’s tracker: +$526.7M on Monday, +$23.2M on Tuesday, +$524.8M on Wednesday, followed by -$635.6M on Thursday and -$137.9M on Friday. The week is still positive, but October remains in the red, at around -$314M. ETH ETFs, meanwhile, are down about $1.18B for the month.
My take: ETF money came in early in the week, as the price climbed toward $84,800, and flowed back out as soon as the price broke down. This isn’t a buyer absorbing the decline; it’s a flow that follows the price. OKX funding remains neutral (+0.0056%), so there’s no visible excess leverage to flush out.
What tonight’s close could tell us:
- Above $82,002, the streak of lower closes ends—a level that seems unlikely given the distance.
- Below $81,164, it would be the lowest weekly close since 13/09 ($76,800).
- The week’s low, $79,121, remains the level to watch ahead of the Fed on 28/10.
Question: In your view, do Monday-to-Wednesday ETF inflows matter more than Thursday-to-Friday outflows, or is it the closing price that decides?
#Bitcoin #ETF
