JUMP hasn’t had its TGE yet, but the shill accounts have already drawn the chart.
Over the past couple of days, Jumper posts on X have all followed the same template: AXIS’s public sale price was 0.10 and it’s around 0.28 now, a 2.8x, so JUMP can do the same. On October 22, someone even wrote, “Pre-market at 0.17; even in a bear market, it could reach a $400M FDV.”
Let’s break down the numbers:
There are 1 billion tokens in total, and the public sale FDV is $75 million, which puts the public sale price at 0.075. At 0.17, the pre-market FDV is already $170 million. Calling for $400 million means more than 5x the public sale price. That’s what you call a “bear market scenario”? How high are they going to call it in a bull market?
Now let’s look at who actually got a meaningful allocation: $48.6 million in subscriptions against a $3 million hard cap—oversubscribed by 16x. Most people got their money back, and the tiny allocation they ended up with isn’t going to change their lives. Fifty percent unlocks at TGE, with the rest vesting linearly over four months, so the selling pressure will come quickly—not trickle out slowly.
Taking one AXIS success story and using it as a template for another coin is classic survivorship bias. The ones who are really guaranteed a win are the people who got in at the low public sale price and the project team—not the people who read a post and bought at 0.17 on the pre-market.
I’m not knocking the product; people really do use its cross-chain aggregator. But the airdrop checker isn’t even out yet, and a bunch of accounts have already started asking, “How big was your allocation?” I’ve seen this kind of hype too many times.
Over the past couple of days, Jumper posts on X have all followed the same template: AXIS’s public sale price was 0.10 and it’s around 0.28 now, a 2.8x, so JUMP can do the same. On October 22, someone even wrote, “Pre-market at 0.17; even in a bear market, it could reach a $400M FDV.”
Let’s break down the numbers:
There are 1 billion tokens in total, and the public sale FDV is $75 million, which puts the public sale price at 0.075. At 0.17, the pre-market FDV is already $170 million. Calling for $400 million means more than 5x the public sale price. That’s what you call a “bear market scenario”? How high are they going to call it in a bull market?
Now let’s look at who actually got a meaningful allocation: $48.6 million in subscriptions against a $3 million hard cap—oversubscribed by 16x. Most people got their money back, and the tiny allocation they ended up with isn’t going to change their lives. Fifty percent unlocks at TGE, with the rest vesting linearly over four months, so the selling pressure will come quickly—not trickle out slowly.
Taking one AXIS success story and using it as a template for another coin is classic survivorship bias. The ones who are really guaranteed a win are the people who got in at the low public sale price and the project team—not the people who read a post and bought at 0.17 on the pre-market.
I’m not knocking the product; people really do use its cross-chain aggregator. But the airdrop checker isn’t even out yet, and a bunch of accounts have already started asking, “How big was your allocation?” I’ve seen this kind of hype too many times.