Overall, the price action this week followed a pattern of “strong rebound—rebound stalled—continued decline—new low.”
Monday’s price action should be viewed in the context of Sunday’s. On Sunday, the price repeatedly tested the support zone at 2,330–2,350, then formed a rapid V-shaped rebound after dipping to 2,328. Trading volume increased noticeably during the decline. During pre-market trading in gold and oil futures early Monday, oil prices pulled back, while consecutive bullish candles recovered a considerable portion of the losses—a relatively strong V-shaped recovery. The price quickly rebounded to around 2,440, which was also the high reached during Saturday’s recovery last week. The downside is that the price has not yet undergone a meaningful retest, and a bearish divergence signal has appeared on the 4-hour chart, so it remains unclear whether this wave of buying can break through the weekend recovery high.
Keep an eye on the two lows at 2315 and 2328. They can certainly be watched as potential double-bottom candidates. The second test did not clearly break the previous low, which is a positive sign. But a double bottom still needs to break above the rebound high between the two lows and hold that breakout level. After price reached 2440, there were several consecutive long wicks, so confirmation was lacking. We then took a short on the right-hand side at 2440 and made a solid profit!
The market is likely to be more range-bound from here. ETH is relatively weak, but open interest rose significantly during the decline. There was a long wick along the way: after dipping to 2369, price quickly rebounded to around 2410, leaving a long lower wick. This can be seen as a first test of the new positions added below, with buyers responding at the lows. But there were no consecutive bullish candles to reclaim the moving-average band; instead, price fell back again. This kind of structure is more like weak consolidation with some buying support, while the rebound lacks follow-through for now. I remember I was still holding a short position then. I’d held it for almost two days and hesitated for a moment about whether to keep holding, but the market just wasn’t going anywhere, so I closed it. I didn’t expect the market to take off shortly afterward on the back of news (spider-sense again, perhaps?).
What followed was the most nerve-racking price action. On the candlestick chart, price surged to around 2470 in the evening and then pulled back, reaching a low of 2435 before rebounding to consolidate in the 2450–2460 range. ETH was consolidating at elevated levels after a sharp rally. My assessment was that although the price was moving higher, spot CVD had not shown much of a pickup in buying. Buying in ETH contracts had increased, but spot buying had not risen significantly in tandem. This was the main weakness in the rebound. That doesn’t mean we can say a major player was definitely distributing, but if a news-driven move lacks follow-through, profit-taking is likely. On the daily chart, it was taking shape as an inside-day consolidation. After the previous day’s rebound, price did not quickly fall back today, which was positive; but it struggled at the close, showing that buyers still needed to prove themselves. The subsequent price action made me eat my words: as price rose to 2530, volume clearly picked up during the push higher, and after the session rolled over, it consolidated above 2500 for several hours. Buyers really did push price above the previous short-term high. It had the hallmarks of a move stalling near the highs, but you couldn’t call a top based on that candle alone—especially after a rebound from a recent decline. I was so spooked that I genuinely thought the market was about to reverse.
There was still one uncertain signal here: ETH lacked sufficiently strong spot follow-through. At the time, BTC showed a clearer recovery in buying; both contract CVD and spot CVD rose noticeably, and the price rebounded in tandem. Although this had not reversed the cumulative downtrend across the entire observation window, active buying had indeed improved in the most recent stretch. ETH was notably different: contract CVD rose along with the price, but some of that was given back after the surge. Spot CVD improved only slightly and remained close to recent lows overall. The price rebound was clearly stronger than the recovery in spot CVD, which is one of the key reasons I was still reluctant to say ETH had completed a reversal.
The price action that followed made things much clearer: the market shifted from a “rebound and retest” phase to a “failed rebound, with the short-term bias turning bearish again.” The 2440–2460 support zone gave way, followed by breaks below 2435 and 2420. All the downside indicators started strengthening, the trend turned broadly bearish, and fresh short positions continued to enter the market. In particular, after breaking below 2450, price failed to reclaim it quickly and instead consolidated beneath it before breaking below 2430 and 2420 as well. This combination of a small consolidation followed by another breakdown is more characteristic of a bearish continuation pattern. By Saturday evening, price had made a new low of 2281!
The price is currently around 2330, which is actually a key level. The daily EMA200 and weekly EMA20 are both in play, and the price is testing major support. We need to watch the closing price at 8 a.m. tomorrow. The gains made after the midweek surge have already been given back. The 2310–2330 zone should now be viewed as an area of contention, not reliable support. If tomorrow morning’s close can reclaim 2350 or higher and follow-through buying emerges, there may still be a chance to recover toward 2400. If the defense of 2350 fails and the rebound cannot reclaim it, pressure will increase for another test of 2280.
Next week, the key will be how the Fed explains its future interest-rate path. The decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 29, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m. The rate decision itself is not the most important thing; what matters is whether Waller’s remarks mention upside risks to inflation, room for further rate hikes, employment and financial conditions, or plans for reserves and the balance sheet. Keep an eye on the dollar and short-term Treasury yields. If ETH continues to fall, I think it may actually rebound once the Fed’s hawkish news is fully priced in. But if the market starts recovering before the rate decision, 2370–2380 and 2400–2420 are the first two recovery thresholds to watch next week. As long as the rebound cannot reclaim them and hold, I’d continue to watch for short opportunities after the rebound.$ETH #市场定价美联储下周加息概率仅10%
There are always opportunities in the market; staying in the game and protecting your principal are what matter most.
