Why can different people draw completely different conclusions from the same set of on-chain data?
On-chain data is worth understanding.
The same metric can mean different things in different market conditions. Looking at several metrics together and cross-checking them against price and trading volume is more reliable than focusing on just one.
Don't put all your funds behind a single judgment.
Every transfer made by $BTC is publicly recorded on-chain, and anyone can look it up using a block explorer.