On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow dropped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%. The Nasdaq’s decline was smaller because some AI-related stocks rose: Micron gained 2.5%, Intel 1.7%, Microsoft 0.7%, and AMD 1.7%.
But the broader market was far from calm. About three-quarters of S&P 500 constituents fell, while Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel, up 3.1% on the day. Oil has climbed from less than $97 in early October, bringing cost and inflation concerns back to the trading table.
Amid the impact of developments over the weekend, the risk of attacks on merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz remains. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, cited by AP, tankers are still transiting under U.S. protection, but 28 vessel attack incidents have occurred in October. Rising transport costs and time pressures show that the risk premium has a real basis.
For tech stocks, the impact of rising oil prices goes beyond simply saying “risk appetite is falling.” If energy and transportation costs continue to stoke inflation, markets will reassess the path of interest rates. Companies with high valuations and cash returns that have yet to fully materialize are usually more sensitive to this shift.
Next week, I’ll be watching three key dates:
📌 Tuesday, October 27: Consumer confidence
The Conference Board will release its consumer confidence report at 10:00 ET. It won’t determine the direction of U.S. stocks on its own, but when oil prices are rising, it’s worth considering how consumers feel about jobs, spending, and inflation alongside market prices.
📌 Wednesday, October 28: FOMC decision and press conference
The Fed will announce its decision at 14:00 ET and hold a press conference at 14:30 ET. The focus isn’t just on whether it “raises rates,” but also on how it describes oil prices, inflation, and the conditions for future policy. Interest rate changes and tech stock performance don’t move in lockstep—Friday was a reminder: the Nasdaq’s relative resilience doesn’t mean the pressure is gone.
📌 Thursday, October 29: First estimate of GDP and tech earnings
The U.S. Department of Commerce will release its first estimate of Q3 GDP at 08:30 ET. Earnings from companies such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel that same week will bring us back to the most basic question: do AI capital spending, cloud revenue, and cash flow add up?
My weekend note boils down to one sentence: first, see whether oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns; then, listen to what the FOMC says; finally, see whether earnings provide evidence that “investment can turn into returns.”
If oil prices continue to rise next week, yields also move higher, and earnings offer a weak explanation of cash flow, pressure on tech stock valuations could increase. Conversely, if oil-related risks don’t keep growing, policy communication remains steady, and earnings provide clearer evidence of revenue and cash flow, the market will have more of a cushion. These are conditions to watch, not predictions.
When you’re watching U.S. stocks next week, will you focus first on oil prices, the FOMC, or tech earnings? What relationship between them are you most keen to understand?
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