Cycle education | The halving is not a countdown to a bull market.
Bitcoin halving changes the rate of new issuance; it does not automatically bring an equivalent amount of buying pressure. Prices are also affected by liquidity, leverage, demand, and whether expectations have already been priced in.
Historical data is limited, and participants and macroeconomic conditions differ from one cycle to the next. Rather than mechanically applying rules like “prices must rise in month X,” observe trading activity, the cost of capital, and changes in leverage—and set conditions under which your thesis would be invalidated. Cycles can help you understand the market, but they are no guarantee of returns.
Bitcoin halving changes the rate of new issuance; it does not automatically bring an equivalent amount of buying pressure. Prices are also affected by liquidity, leverage, demand, and whether expectations have already been priced in.
Historical data is limited, and participants and macroeconomic conditions differ from one cycle to the next. Rather than mechanically applying rules like “prices must rise in month X,” observe trading activity, the cost of capital, and changes in leverage—and set conditions under which your thesis would be invalidated. Cycles can help you understand the market, but they are no guarantee of returns.