UNITREE surged today. Here’s my short setup.
4-hour chart structure:
The August high was 130, followed by a steady drop to the 60s, where it consolidated for two months.
Today it broke out on heavy volume. Current price: 95.47; high: 96.68.
It looks strong.
But my view is that this is a shorting opportunity, not a chance to chase longs.
━━ Why I’m considering a short ━━
First, this looks like a structural rebound.
The 60–80 consolidation range is packed with historical bagholders.
Many trapped longs are waiting to break even, creating heavy selling pressure between $95 and $105.
This rally is bringing those bagholders back to the market, not kicking off a new trend.
Second, the data doesn’t support a trend-following long.
Current LSR: 69.8% shorts, only 30.2% longs.
Smart money is already shorting while retail traders are chasing longs.
FR = 0%, which means this rally has no support from funding rates.
Third, volume confirms the picture.
Today’s trading volume is 9M, notably lower than during past sharp rallies.
A rally without volume is far more likely to be distribution than a genuine breakout.
━━ Short strategy ━━
Entry zone: Around $105 (wait for a rebound; don’t chase the current price)
Stop loss: $111.6 (invalidation level; a breakout above this means my view is wrong)
Target 1: $95 (the former upper boundary of the consolidation range)
Target 2: $80.6 (the midpoint of the consolidation range)
Stop-loss distance from entry: 6.3%; TP1 distance from entry: 9.5%
Risk-reward ratio: 1:1.52. The setup makes sense.
━━ Core logic ━━
The current price is still 9% below my entry zone.
I won’t chase the current price. I’ll place a limit order and wait for a confirmed rebound around $105 before shorting.
If price doesn’t return to $105 and instead breaks above $111.6—
the setup is invalidated. I won’t chase it.
If the opportunity comes, I’ll take it. If not, I won’t.
What do you think of this trade?
Comment A (agree with the short; wait for $105), B (bullish; think it’ll keep rising), or C (not participating; staying on the sidelines).
Follow me for nightly livestreams at 21:00 and SMC lessons.
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🌿 Xing Zhao Bu Xuan | For reference only
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4-hour chart structure:
The August high was 130, followed by a steady drop to the 60s, where it consolidated for two months.
Today it broke out on heavy volume. Current price: 95.47; high: 96.68.
It looks strong.
But my view is that this is a shorting opportunity, not a chance to chase longs.
━━ Why I’m considering a short ━━
First, this looks like a structural rebound.
The 60–80 consolidation range is packed with historical bagholders.
Many trapped longs are waiting to break even, creating heavy selling pressure between $95 and $105.
This rally is bringing those bagholders back to the market, not kicking off a new trend.
Second, the data doesn’t support a trend-following long.
Current LSR: 69.8% shorts, only 30.2% longs.
Smart money is already shorting while retail traders are chasing longs.
FR = 0%, which means this rally has no support from funding rates.
Third, volume confirms the picture.
Today’s trading volume is 9M, notably lower than during past sharp rallies.
A rally without volume is far more likely to be distribution than a genuine breakout.
━━ Short strategy ━━
Entry zone: Around $105 (wait for a rebound; don’t chase the current price)
Stop loss: $111.6 (invalidation level; a breakout above this means my view is wrong)
Target 1: $95 (the former upper boundary of the consolidation range)
Target 2: $80.6 (the midpoint of the consolidation range)
Stop-loss distance from entry: 6.3%; TP1 distance from entry: 9.5%
Risk-reward ratio: 1:1.52. The setup makes sense.
━━ Core logic ━━
The current price is still 9% below my entry zone.
I won’t chase the current price. I’ll place a limit order and wait for a confirmed rebound around $105 before shorting.
If price doesn’t return to $105 and instead breaks above $111.6—
the setup is invalidated. I won’t chase it.
If the opportunity comes, I’ll take it. If not, I won’t.
What do you think of this trade?
Comment A (agree with the short; wait for $105), B (bullish; think it’ll keep rising), or C (not participating; staying on the sidelines).
Follow me for nightly livestreams at 21:00 and SMC lessons.
Sign up for a 20% trading fee discount 🔗 www.bsmkweb.cc/register?ref=XZBX666
🌿 Xing Zhao Bu Xuan | For reference only
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH #合约交易 #永续合约
