The retail long/short ratio finally edged down a bit today, but I’m still not ready to take that as a signal that the trend is turning bullish.
$BTC spent the afternoon hovering around 80,700, barely moving over the past 24 hours. There was more activity in the futures market: open interest fell from a peak of 96,300 contracts around 4 a.m. today to about 93,300 now, while the price stayed essentially flat. That looks like traders closing positions and reducing leverage, not new longs rushing in. The retail account long/short ratio dropped from 2.17 yesterday evening to 2.06 now. Long accounts make up about 67%—a little less crowded than before, but still far from a thorough washout. The whale long/short ratio by position size is stuck at 1.66, about the same as the reading in this morning’s liquidation chart. They haven’t added to their longs either. Funding rates are still positive, so longs are continuing to pay. The Fear & Greed Index ticked up slightly to 54 today from 51 yesterday. It’s still neutral—not fearful, let alone greedy.
So I’m not buying at this level. Just below 80,700 is a gap around the four-hour moving averages; the only support that really matters is Saturday’s low at 79,220. For a bullish reversal, we’d need to see price reclaim 82k on strong volume, and the retail long/short ratio would also need to fall below 1.8. The Fed is up early Thursday, and liquidity is usually thin from the weekend into midweek. I’ll keep leverage low and let $ETH follow BTC rather than look for a direction on its own.
$BTC spent the afternoon hovering around 80,700, barely moving over the past 24 hours. There was more activity in the futures market: open interest fell from a peak of 96,300 contracts around 4 a.m. today to about 93,300 now, while the price stayed essentially flat. That looks like traders closing positions and reducing leverage, not new longs rushing in. The retail account long/short ratio dropped from 2.17 yesterday evening to 2.06 now. Long accounts make up about 67%—a little less crowded than before, but still far from a thorough washout. The whale long/short ratio by position size is stuck at 1.66, about the same as the reading in this morning’s liquidation chart. They haven’t added to their longs either. Funding rates are still positive, so longs are continuing to pay. The Fear & Greed Index ticked up slightly to 54 today from 51 yesterday. It’s still neutral—not fearful, let alone greedy.
So I’m not buying at this level. Just below 80,700 is a gap around the four-hour moving averages; the only support that really matters is Saturday’s low at 79,220. For a bullish reversal, we’d need to see price reclaim 82k on strong volume, and the retail long/short ratio would also need to fall below 1.8. The Fed is up early Thursday, and liquidity is usually thin from the weekend into midweek. I’ll keep leverage low and let $ETH follow BTC rather than look for a direction on its own.