Only 16% of the supply is circulating and people are still chasing it? CAP is up 19% and it’s making me nervous.
I’m siding with the bears. I’m not chasing at this level. Just putting that out there.
First, the data.
CAP climbed from 0.0697 to 0.0832 today, up 19.2% in 24 hours, after hitting a high of 0.0877.
BTC was up just 0.03% over the same period, so this move was CAP flying solo, not the broader market.
And the volume was real: the 4-hour candle at 8 a.m. saw 160 million tokens traded, followed by another 85 million in a single hour at 11 a.m.
That 11 a.m. hourly candle was the most interesting.
It first surged to 0.0877, then a wick drove it back down to 0.0785, before it closed at 0.0835.
Anyone who jumped in at 11 was underwater within an hour. That wick was a jab at the people chasing the rally.
The bulls do have some real cards to play, though.
The news today is that Cap officially launched as an AVS on EigenLayer, while traditional market maker Flow Traders is starting to bring credit on-chain, with YieldNest acting as a delegator to support it.
Institutional credit moving on-chain is a real story, not some made-up narrative.
On top of that, the RSI is only 56.8—not overheated—and the first resistance level at 0.0819 flagged by Coinotag has already been cleared. Cap is also up 5.6% on South Korea’s Upbit today.
But I’m still not buying.
Only 1.6 billion tokens are circulating out of a total supply of 10 billion, so more than 80% of the tokens haven’t been released yet. That overhang is still hanging over the market.
A little over ten days ago, Santiment ranked its network growth first, but just over twenty days ago it cut stabledrop rewards from 11 million to 4 million. Trust in the community has a crack in it.
The funding rate is +0.0257%, meaning longs are paying shorts. Sentiment is anything but cool.
Here’s how I see it: the event is real, but after a 19% rally in one day, the price has already captured the event’s upside.
I’m more convinced this is an event-driven spark amplified by thin weekend liquidity, rather than a sudden fundamental revaluation.
A true revaluation wouldn’t look like the upper wick on that 11 a.m. candle with 85 million tokens traded. It would mean holding steady above the level.
Here are the scenarios.
If it holds above 0.0877, I’ll admit I was wrong and look toward 0.0958, where it was trading a little over ten days ago.
If it breaks below 0.0772, that 11 a.m. wick marks a short-term top, and I’ll look toward the 0.0697 starting point.
I’ve just opened a short. If it gets back above 0.0877, I’ll close it. If it breaks below 0.0772, I’ll hold on for now and see if it reaches 0.07.
Does reclaiming 0.0877 mean institutions are really coming in, or would a break below 0.0772 prove that today’s move was just a one-day event-driven rally?
I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$CAP $ETH $BTC
#Cap #DeFi
I’m siding with the bears. I’m not chasing at this level. Just putting that out there.
First, the data.
CAP climbed from 0.0697 to 0.0832 today, up 19.2% in 24 hours, after hitting a high of 0.0877.
BTC was up just 0.03% over the same period, so this move was CAP flying solo, not the broader market.
And the volume was real: the 4-hour candle at 8 a.m. saw 160 million tokens traded, followed by another 85 million in a single hour at 11 a.m.
That 11 a.m. hourly candle was the most interesting.
It first surged to 0.0877, then a wick drove it back down to 0.0785, before it closed at 0.0835.
Anyone who jumped in at 11 was underwater within an hour. That wick was a jab at the people chasing the rally.
The bulls do have some real cards to play, though.
The news today is that Cap officially launched as an AVS on EigenLayer, while traditional market maker Flow Traders is starting to bring credit on-chain, with YieldNest acting as a delegator to support it.
Institutional credit moving on-chain is a real story, not some made-up narrative.
On top of that, the RSI is only 56.8—not overheated—and the first resistance level at 0.0819 flagged by Coinotag has already been cleared. Cap is also up 5.6% on South Korea’s Upbit today.
But I’m still not buying.
Only 1.6 billion tokens are circulating out of a total supply of 10 billion, so more than 80% of the tokens haven’t been released yet. That overhang is still hanging over the market.
A little over ten days ago, Santiment ranked its network growth first, but just over twenty days ago it cut stabledrop rewards from 11 million to 4 million. Trust in the community has a crack in it.
The funding rate is +0.0257%, meaning longs are paying shorts. Sentiment is anything but cool.
Here’s how I see it: the event is real, but after a 19% rally in one day, the price has already captured the event’s upside.
I’m more convinced this is an event-driven spark amplified by thin weekend liquidity, rather than a sudden fundamental revaluation.
A true revaluation wouldn’t look like the upper wick on that 11 a.m. candle with 85 million tokens traded. It would mean holding steady above the level.
Here are the scenarios.
If it holds above 0.0877, I’ll admit I was wrong and look toward 0.0958, where it was trading a little over ten days ago.
If it breaks below 0.0772, that 11 a.m. wick marks a short-term top, and I’ll look toward the 0.0697 starting point.
I’ve just opened a short. If it gets back above 0.0877, I’ll close it. If it breaks below 0.0772, I’ll hold on for now and see if it reaches 0.07.
Does reclaiming 0.0877 mean institutions are really coming in, or would a break below 0.0772 prove that today’s move was just a one-day event-driven rally?
I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$CAP $ETH $BTC
#Cap #DeFi