Next week’s “Super Week”: The Fed, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all face the test as roughly $800 billion in AI capex goes on trial
📌 Reuters, 10/23: About one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings from 10/26–30, making it the busiest week of the season. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on 10/28 (Wednesday), and Amazon after the close on 10/29 (Thursday).
📌 The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET on 10/28 (2 a.m. Beijing time on 10/29). LSEG data puts the odds of a rate hike this time below 10%, but the odds of a December hike at around 80%; Chair Warsh’s press conference will be in focus.
📌 Preliminary third-quarter GDP is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on 10/29 (StockTitan calendar); Intel and SanDisk also report earnings this week. Reuters says hyperscaler capex is around $800 billion this year. After Meta and Lam’s earnings, the Nasdaq recorded its biggest single-day drop since June on 10/22.
【Viewpoint】
Markets are no longer unconditionally rewarding “spending big to build AI.” The key this week isn’t whether revenue beats expectations, but whether capex guidance and investment returns add up. We’ll hear Warsh set the tone for December, then see Microsoft and Google’s cloud growth on the same day; volatility is likely to be concentrated from late Wednesday through Friday. Crypto has recently been highly correlated with the Nasdaq and risk appetite, so BTC near $80,000 may not be immune.
【Opportunities/Risks】
✅ If cloud growth accelerates and capex guidance stops surging, AI-related stocks and risk assets could rebound, potentially lifting sentiment around compute tokens as well.
⚠️ If capex keeps rising while returns remain unclear, compounded by hawkish signals from Warsh pointing to a December rate hike, tech stocks and crypto could suffer another “double whammy.”
👀 Watch: Warsh’s comments on December, Azure/Google Cloud growth, AWS capacity and capex, the preliminary GDP reading, and the U.S. midterm elections on 11/3.
Do you think this week is an “entry point” during the AI pullback, or the start of a deeper correction?
#美联储 #美股财报 #AI #宏观 #BTC
$BTC $RENDER
For reference only; not investment advice.
📌 Reuters, 10/23: About one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings from 10/26–30, making it the busiest week of the season. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on 10/28 (Wednesday), and Amazon after the close on 10/29 (Thursday).
📌 The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET on 10/28 (2 a.m. Beijing time on 10/29). LSEG data puts the odds of a rate hike this time below 10%, but the odds of a December hike at around 80%; Chair Warsh’s press conference will be in focus.
📌 Preliminary third-quarter GDP is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on 10/29 (StockTitan calendar); Intel and SanDisk also report earnings this week. Reuters says hyperscaler capex is around $800 billion this year. After Meta and Lam’s earnings, the Nasdaq recorded its biggest single-day drop since June on 10/22.
【Viewpoint】
Markets are no longer unconditionally rewarding “spending big to build AI.” The key this week isn’t whether revenue beats expectations, but whether capex guidance and investment returns add up. We’ll hear Warsh set the tone for December, then see Microsoft and Google’s cloud growth on the same day; volatility is likely to be concentrated from late Wednesday through Friday. Crypto has recently been highly correlated with the Nasdaq and risk appetite, so BTC near $80,000 may not be immune.
【Opportunities/Risks】
✅ If cloud growth accelerates and capex guidance stops surging, AI-related stocks and risk assets could rebound, potentially lifting sentiment around compute tokens as well.
⚠️ If capex keeps rising while returns remain unclear, compounded by hawkish signals from Warsh pointing to a December rate hike, tech stocks and crypto could suffer another “double whammy.”
👀 Watch: Warsh’s comments on December, Azure/Google Cloud growth, AWS capacity and capex, the preliminary GDP reading, and the U.S. midterm elections on 11/3.
Do you think this week is an “entry point” during the AI pullback, or the start of a deeper correction?
#美联储 #美股财报 #AI #宏观 #BTC
$BTC $RENDER
For reference only; not investment advice.