BIRB surged to 0.2032 yesterday morning—so who’s buying the bags?
I’m siding with the bears.
In yesterday’s post, I said it would lose steam below 0.089, with 0.06 in sight.
Right after I said that, a single 4-hour candle yesterday morning shot straight from 0.076 to 0.2032—more than a double.
Honestly, that candle left me completely stunned. I’d barely posted, and the market had already taught me a lesson.
First, the data.
BIRB perpetuals on Binance are at 0.0745 right now, down 43.6% in 24 hours, with a high of 0.20887 and a low of 0.0735.
Futures volume is $767 million, open interest is 67.21 million BIRB, and the funding rate is -1.60%/8h.
That means bears are still paying to stay in the trade—1.6% every 8 hours, or 4.8% a day.
Yesterday morning’s 4-hour candle closed at 0.185, then the price touched 0.20887 around midday. Right after that came a candle that plunged to 0.1057 intraday and closed at 0.1207.
It slid lower from last night through this morning. The 8 a.m. candle tried to fake a rebound to 0.1018, then turned around and sank back to around 0.074.
What are the bulls saying?
With funding still this negative, the bears haven’t run out of fuel. Yesterday morning’s candle proved it—the bulls could squeeze out another spike at any moment.
The narrative about the Moonbirds NFT revival is still alive, and the Orange Cap acquisition backdrop hasn’t fallen apart either.
What are the bears saying?
From 0.2089 to 0.0745, anyone who chased yesterday is now down 64%. This isn’t a shakeout; it’s distribution.
With $767 million in 24-hour volume, the price keeps moving lower. That’s selling volume, not buying support.
This morning’s fake rebound to 0.1018 got dumped immediately, showing just how heavy the overhead selling pressure is.
And there’s still no new positive catalyst. What I said yesterday—that no new collectibles were released today—still applies.
I think the bears have the stronger hand.
The conclusion from yesterday’s post hasn’t really changed: below 0.089, it loses steam, with 0.06 in sight. The only difference is that the price’s path slapped me in the face first.
There’s one key number: funding at -1.60%/8h. The bears are still paying, so the game isn’t quite over—but the price has already cast its vote.
I haven’t made a move. After getting slapped yesterday, I can’t bring myself to act at this level today. I’ll wait and see if 0.0735 breaks.
Scenario analysis: If it gets back above 0.1018 and holds, I’ll admit I’m wrong and look to 0.12. If it breaks below 0.0735, sentiment will completely fizzle out, with 0.06 in sight; if 0.06 breaks, then 0.051.
I’m leaving the two target levels from yesterday’s post exactly as they were. No changes.
Will the bears keep paying the 1.6% protection fee and squeeze BIRB back to 0.12, or will this rally fizzle out and send it crashing straight back to 0.051? I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$BIRB $SOL $BTC
#Moonbirds #NFT
I’m siding with the bears.
In yesterday’s post, I said it would lose steam below 0.089, with 0.06 in sight.
Right after I said that, a single 4-hour candle yesterday morning shot straight from 0.076 to 0.2032—more than a double.
Honestly, that candle left me completely stunned. I’d barely posted, and the market had already taught me a lesson.
First, the data.
BIRB perpetuals on Binance are at 0.0745 right now, down 43.6% in 24 hours, with a high of 0.20887 and a low of 0.0735.
Futures volume is $767 million, open interest is 67.21 million BIRB, and the funding rate is -1.60%/8h.
That means bears are still paying to stay in the trade—1.6% every 8 hours, or 4.8% a day.
Yesterday morning’s 4-hour candle closed at 0.185, then the price touched 0.20887 around midday. Right after that came a candle that plunged to 0.1057 intraday and closed at 0.1207.
It slid lower from last night through this morning. The 8 a.m. candle tried to fake a rebound to 0.1018, then turned around and sank back to around 0.074.
What are the bulls saying?
With funding still this negative, the bears haven’t run out of fuel. Yesterday morning’s candle proved it—the bulls could squeeze out another spike at any moment.
The narrative about the Moonbirds NFT revival is still alive, and the Orange Cap acquisition backdrop hasn’t fallen apart either.
What are the bears saying?
From 0.2089 to 0.0745, anyone who chased yesterday is now down 64%. This isn’t a shakeout; it’s distribution.
With $767 million in 24-hour volume, the price keeps moving lower. That’s selling volume, not buying support.
This morning’s fake rebound to 0.1018 got dumped immediately, showing just how heavy the overhead selling pressure is.
And there’s still no new positive catalyst. What I said yesterday—that no new collectibles were released today—still applies.
I think the bears have the stronger hand.
The conclusion from yesterday’s post hasn’t really changed: below 0.089, it loses steam, with 0.06 in sight. The only difference is that the price’s path slapped me in the face first.
There’s one key number: funding at -1.60%/8h. The bears are still paying, so the game isn’t quite over—but the price has already cast its vote.
I haven’t made a move. After getting slapped yesterday, I can’t bring myself to act at this level today. I’ll wait and see if 0.0735 breaks.
Scenario analysis: If it gets back above 0.1018 and holds, I’ll admit I’m wrong and look to 0.12. If it breaks below 0.0735, sentiment will completely fizzle out, with 0.06 in sight; if 0.06 breaks, then 0.051.
I’m leaving the two target levels from yesterday’s post exactly as they were. No changes.
Will the bears keep paying the 1.6% protection fee and squeeze BIRB back to 0.12, or will this rally fizzle out and send it crashing straight back to 0.051? I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$BIRB $SOL $BTC
#Moonbirds #NFT