#黄金自7月以来首次跌破4000美元
$XAUT
Gold falls below 4,000: Retail investors are calculating the pullback; central banks are filling their reserves
There’s an old Polish saying: When gold speaks, reason bows its head. In this latest drop below 4,000, plenty of people are calling it a buying opportunity, but central banks are the ones steadily buying up the gold.
A World Gold Council survey shows that global central banks have made net purchases averaging around 1,000 tonnes a year over the past four years—twice the annual average of 500 tonnes in the decade before that. Official net purchases in the second quarter reached 289 tonnes, up 62% year on year, a second-quarter record and about five times the 57 tonnes bought in the first quarter. But total purchases for the first half came to 345 tonnes, making it the weakest first-half start since 2022, as countries including Turkey and Russia sold gold. Buying and selling have been happening at the same time.
Poland was the biggest buyer: it added 82 tonnes in the first half, including 51 tonnes in the second quarter. Its reserves now stand at around 632 tonnes, with a target of 700 tonnes; gold already accounts for nearly 30% of its foreign exchange reserves. China has continued adding to its reserves for 23 consecutive months since resuming purchases in November 2024. In September alone, it added 740,000 ounces—the largest monthly purchase since purchases resumed. Yet gold still accounts for less than 9% of China’s foreign exchange reserves, far below the global central-bank average of 27%. That leaves structural room to keep buying as prices fall.
The survey also shows that 89% of central banks expect official reserves to rise over the coming year, while 45% plan to increase their gold holdings—a record-high share.
In short: retail investors are calculating how deep the pullback might be; central banks are filling out the structure of their reserves. The two sets of calculations don’t conflict—they just move at different speeds. Personal opinion only; not investment advice. #黄金自7月以来首次跌破4000美元
$XAUT
Gold falls below 4,000: Retail investors are calculating the pullback; central banks are filling their reserves
There’s an old Polish saying: When gold speaks, reason bows its head. In this latest drop below 4,000, plenty of people are calling it a buying opportunity, but central banks are the ones steadily buying up the gold.
A World Gold Council survey shows that global central banks have made net purchases averaging around 1,000 tonnes a year over the past four years—twice the annual average of 500 tonnes in the decade before that. Official net purchases in the second quarter reached 289 tonnes, up 62% year on year, a second-quarter record and about five times the 57 tonnes bought in the first quarter. But total purchases for the first half came to 345 tonnes, making it the weakest first-half start since 2022, as countries including Turkey and Russia sold gold. Buying and selling have been happening at the same time.
Poland was the biggest buyer: it added 82 tonnes in the first half, including 51 tonnes in the second quarter. Its reserves now stand at around 632 tonnes, with a target of 700 tonnes; gold already accounts for nearly 30% of its foreign exchange reserves. China has continued adding to its reserves for 23 consecutive months since resuming purchases in November 2024. In September alone, it added 740,000 ounces—the largest monthly purchase since purchases resumed. Yet gold still accounts for less than 9% of China’s foreign exchange reserves, far below the global central-bank average of 27%. That leaves structural room to keep buying as prices fall.
The survey also shows that 89% of central banks expect official reserves to rise over the coming year, while 45% plan to increase their gold holdings—a record-high share.
In short: retail investors are calculating how deep the pullback might be; central banks are filling out the structure of their reserves. The two sets of calculations don’t conflict—they just move at different speeds. Personal opinion only; not investment advice. #黄金自7月以来首次跌破4000美元