Weekend Morning Brief: $BTC recovered from 79,220 to 80,600, but this still isn’t a reversal
The data on the Plaza today is interesting: the hot topic is still earnings season, with 4.4M views and 9,006 people discussing it. $USDT tops the most-searched list over the past 6 hours, while $BTC is merely gaining traction, ranking around the middle. Attention is on earnings season, while money is sitting in stablecoins waiting—that’s the backdrop for this weekend’s market.
The bulls have three cards to play:
① The intraday low of 79,220 held, and the price has recovered to 80,627 (Finnhub/Binance figures; previous close: 81,004);
② ETF outflows are narrowing: $635.6 million on Thursday (the largest since June) → $137.9 million on Friday. Selling pressure didn’t continue to intensify;
③ The Fear and Greed Index is at 45, neutral—not at panic-selling levels.
The bears aren’t weak either:
① Price still hasn’t reclaimed 81,300. As I said yesterday, if the close fails to get back above this level, treat it as a genuine breakdown. It still hasn’t reclaimed it today;
② Combined outflows totaled $773 million over two days, and institutions haven’t returned to buy the dip;
③ The aftershock of Friday’s 653-point drop in the Dow is still being felt, and the 4.4M people focused on earnings season aren’t paying attention to crypto.
My take: this weekend’s move is a recovery, not a reversal. Don’t chase above 80,000. The dividing line is 81,300: only a high-volume reclaim and hold would confirm that the bears are losing steam. A high-volume break below 80,000 puts 79,700 in focus first, followed by a possible retest of the 79,220 low.
What would invalidate this view: a high-volume reclaim of 81,300 or 82,313 (the ETF average cost line) would invalidate the bearish thesis above.
What will you do this weekend? A. Sit tight and do nothing B. Hold half in cash and wait for FOMC C. Stay flat and watch D. Dare to buy around 79,220
The data on the Plaza today is interesting: the hot topic is still earnings season, with 4.4M views and 9,006 people discussing it. $USDT tops the most-searched list over the past 6 hours, while $BTC is merely gaining traction, ranking around the middle. Attention is on earnings season, while money is sitting in stablecoins waiting—that’s the backdrop for this weekend’s market.
The bulls have three cards to play:
① The intraday low of 79,220 held, and the price has recovered to 80,627 (Finnhub/Binance figures; previous close: 81,004);
② ETF outflows are narrowing: $635.6 million on Thursday (the largest since June) → $137.9 million on Friday. Selling pressure didn’t continue to intensify;
③ The Fear and Greed Index is at 45, neutral—not at panic-selling levels.
The bears aren’t weak either:
① Price still hasn’t reclaimed 81,300. As I said yesterday, if the close fails to get back above this level, treat it as a genuine breakdown. It still hasn’t reclaimed it today;
② Combined outflows totaled $773 million over two days, and institutions haven’t returned to buy the dip;
③ The aftershock of Friday’s 653-point drop in the Dow is still being felt, and the 4.4M people focused on earnings season aren’t paying attention to crypto.
My take: this weekend’s move is a recovery, not a reversal. Don’t chase above 80,000. The dividing line is 81,300: only a high-volume reclaim and hold would confirm that the bears are losing steam. A high-volume break below 80,000 puts 79,700 in focus first, followed by a possible retest of the 79,220 low.
What would invalidate this view: a high-volume reclaim of 81,300 or 82,313 (the ETF average cost line) would invalidate the bearish thesis above.
What will you do this weekend? A. Sit tight and do nothing B. Hold half in cash and wait for FOMC C. Stay flat and watch D. Dare to buy around 79,220