Houthi missiles target Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu: Red Sea “lifeline port” named, will oil prices add more risk premium?
According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), CNBC and Arab News: On Saturday, October 24, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by Houthi forces toward Taif and Yanbu. Alerts in Mecca, Jeddah and other areas were lifted after about 10 minutes. Debris fell in several locations, with no casualties reported.
According to CNBC: The Houthis had previously claimed to have attacked Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Ministry of Defense in Riyadh and Dammam airport (two people were killed in Dammam). Saudi Arabia has not confirmed attacks on Riyadh or Yanbu.
According to AP/The Closing Print: Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, its highest close since April 29, up about 6% for the week. WTI settled at $103.27, putting the Brent-WTI spread at around $13.5.
【View】
Since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed in March, Yanbu has been a key Red Sea route for Saudi crude exports. Although the missiles were intercepted this time, the mere fact that the “export lifeline has been targeted” is adding a risk premium to seaborne crude. The spread widening to around $13.5 suggests the market is worried about Middle Eastern seaborne barrels, rather than US supply. The higher oil prices climb, the harder it is for inflationary pressure to ease. The Federal Reserve is therefore more likely to maintain a hawkish tone on Wednesday (10/28), which is not favorable for risk assets such as BTC.
【Opportunities/Risks】
1. Futures open Sunday evening: If there is no further escalation over the weekend, Brent may give back some of its premium; if Yanbu is actually damaged, prices could rise toward the spring highs.
2. Watch whether the US 10-year Treasury yield can stay below 5%, and what the FOMC says about a December rate hike.
3. BTC has been fluctuating around 80,000. Oil prices and yields are the main external factors over the next couple of days, so leveraged long positions still warrant caution.
Do you think this round of oil-price risk premium will be priced out at Monday’s open, or will it keep pushing higher?
#原油 #中东局势 #美联储 #Macro
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; this is not investment advice
According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), CNBC and Arab News: On Saturday, October 24, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by Houthi forces toward Taif and Yanbu. Alerts in Mecca, Jeddah and other areas were lifted after about 10 minutes. Debris fell in several locations, with no casualties reported.
According to CNBC: The Houthis had previously claimed to have attacked Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Ministry of Defense in Riyadh and Dammam airport (two people were killed in Dammam). Saudi Arabia has not confirmed attacks on Riyadh or Yanbu.
According to AP/The Closing Print: Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, its highest close since April 29, up about 6% for the week. WTI settled at $103.27, putting the Brent-WTI spread at around $13.5.
【View】
Since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed in March, Yanbu has been a key Red Sea route for Saudi crude exports. Although the missiles were intercepted this time, the mere fact that the “export lifeline has been targeted” is adding a risk premium to seaborne crude. The spread widening to around $13.5 suggests the market is worried about Middle Eastern seaborne barrels, rather than US supply. The higher oil prices climb, the harder it is for inflationary pressure to ease. The Federal Reserve is therefore more likely to maintain a hawkish tone on Wednesday (10/28), which is not favorable for risk assets such as BTC.
【Opportunities/Risks】
1. Futures open Sunday evening: If there is no further escalation over the weekend, Brent may give back some of its premium; if Yanbu is actually damaged, prices could rise toward the spring highs.
2. Watch whether the US 10-year Treasury yield can stay below 5%, and what the FOMC says about a December rate hike.
3. BTC has been fluctuating around 80,000. Oil prices and yields are the main external factors over the next couple of days, so leveraged long positions still warrant caution.
Do you think this round of oil-price risk premium will be priced out at Monday’s open, or will it keep pushing higher?
#原油 #中东局势 #美联储 #Macro
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; this is not investment advice