$BTC broke October's floor this Saturday, 24/10: $79,121 on Kraken during the 15:00 UTC hour, below the 15/10 low ($79,709). This is the lowest price since 18/09.
1/ The trigger cited by CoinDesk: according to the WSJ, the United States is evacuating personnel from embassies and bases in the Middle East amid an Iranian threat. ETH, XRP, and SOL were down 3% to 4% at the same time.
2/ The market was already fragile. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $635.6M on 22/10, followed by $137.9M on 23/10 (Farside), for a total of $773.5M over two sessions. Since the 21/10 high of $84,840, the decline has reached 6.7%.
3/ In derivatives, there is no visible panic on OKX: BTC perpetual open interest fell from about $2.51B (23/10, 23:00 UTC) to $2.43B (24/10, 16:00 UTC), while funding remains flat (+0.0025%). My take: a moderate leverage washout, not capitulation. That's an interpretation, not a certainty.
4/ The difference from 15/10: that day, BTC touched $79,709 and then closed at $82,134. This time, the bounce remains modest, around $80,079 at 16:53 UTC.
What I'm watching:
A daily close above $80,300 (the 08/10 low) would make this dip below the floor a mere liquidity wick.
A weekly close below $79,700 on Sunday would open up the 18/09 zone, around $76,231.
Between the two, the Fed on 28/10 could determine the direction.
Question for you: is this break below the 15/10 low a weekend bear trap, or the start of a real move back toward $76,000?
#Bitcoin #BTC
1/ The trigger cited by CoinDesk: according to the WSJ, the United States is evacuating personnel from embassies and bases in the Middle East amid an Iranian threat. ETH, XRP, and SOL were down 3% to 4% at the same time.
2/ The market was already fragile. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $635.6M on 22/10, followed by $137.9M on 23/10 (Farside), for a total of $773.5M over two sessions. Since the 21/10 high of $84,840, the decline has reached 6.7%.
3/ In derivatives, there is no visible panic on OKX: BTC perpetual open interest fell from about $2.51B (23/10, 23:00 UTC) to $2.43B (24/10, 16:00 UTC), while funding remains flat (+0.0025%). My take: a moderate leverage washout, not capitulation. That's an interpretation, not a certainty.
4/ The difference from 15/10: that day, BTC touched $79,709 and then closed at $82,134. This time, the bounce remains modest, around $80,079 at 16:53 UTC.
What I'm watching:
A daily close above $80,300 (the 08/10 low) would make this dip below the floor a mere liquidity wick.
A weekly close below $79,700 on Sunday would open up the 18/09 zone, around $76,231.
Between the two, the Fed on 28/10 could determine the direction.
Question for you: is this break below the 15/10 low a weekend bear trap, or the start of a real move back toward $76,000?
#Bitcoin #BTC
