Bitcoin #BTC · 87,300 has failed twice to break through, and 80,000 is back on a knife edge
The bearish candle on October 22 wiped out all the excitement from the previous day’s 84,900. Now, around 81,000, Bitcoin is testing an old line of defense. This year, Bitcoin has been trading in a wide range: a ceiling at 97,932 and a floor at 57,759. The recovery trend is still intact, but 87,300 was tested once in September and once in October, and neither attempt succeeded. With a double top hanging over the market, any rise is just a rebound until price holds above that level.
There are three reasons for the weakness. First, after ETF inflows of 1.07 billion over three days, there was a single-day outflow of 636 million on the 22nd. That’s a sharp brake, not a mass exit—but it shows institutions aren’t chasing prices above 84,000. Second, AI stocks are selling off and oil prices are rising. The rate decision is at 2 a.m. on the 29th, but the main event is in December. Bitcoin and semiconductors are tied together. Third, don’t focus only on the bearish side: Treasury yields are back at 4.97, and the Fear and Greed Index is at 51. That signals hesitation, not panic.
Here’s the blunt truth: with an average daily range of about 2,100 dollars, setting a stop loss just 300 or 500 dollars away is practically giving your money away.
Key levels:
Short-term support: 80,400, 79,700, 77,700
Medium-term support: 76,100, 74,900, 72,600
Short-term resistance: 81,800, 83,000, 84,900
Medium-term resistance: 87,300, 90,000, 95,000
Three possible scenarios:
Base case (50%): range between 80,400 and 84,900 until the rate decision;
Bullish (25%): reclaim 83,000, then take 84,900 and make a run at 87,300;
Bearish (25%): break below 79,700 and head toward 76,100, with 74,900 as an extreme. If it gets there, it could be a second chance to position yourself calmly.
To put it plainly: don’t gamble on direction while standing on a knife edge. Set your orders and keep your money safe. The big move we’re waiting for is the day 87,300 is firmly underfoot. $BTC
The bearish candle on October 22 wiped out all the excitement from the previous day’s 84,900. Now, around 81,000, Bitcoin is testing an old line of defense. This year, Bitcoin has been trading in a wide range: a ceiling at 97,932 and a floor at 57,759. The recovery trend is still intact, but 87,300 was tested once in September and once in October, and neither attempt succeeded. With a double top hanging over the market, any rise is just a rebound until price holds above that level.
There are three reasons for the weakness. First, after ETF inflows of 1.07 billion over three days, there was a single-day outflow of 636 million on the 22nd. That’s a sharp brake, not a mass exit—but it shows institutions aren’t chasing prices above 84,000. Second, AI stocks are selling off and oil prices are rising. The rate decision is at 2 a.m. on the 29th, but the main event is in December. Bitcoin and semiconductors are tied together. Third, don’t focus only on the bearish side: Treasury yields are back at 4.97, and the Fear and Greed Index is at 51. That signals hesitation, not panic.
Here’s the blunt truth: with an average daily range of about 2,100 dollars, setting a stop loss just 300 or 500 dollars away is practically giving your money away.
Key levels:
Short-term support: 80,400, 79,700, 77,700
Medium-term support: 76,100, 74,900, 72,600
Short-term resistance: 81,800, 83,000, 84,900
Medium-term resistance: 87,300, 90,000, 95,000
Three possible scenarios:
Base case (50%): range between 80,400 and 84,900 until the rate decision;
Bullish (25%): reclaim 83,000, then take 84,900 and make a run at 87,300;
Bearish (25%): break below 79,700 and head toward 76,100, with 74,900 as an extreme. If it gets there, it could be a second chance to position yourself calmly.
To put it plainly: don’t gamble on direction while standing on a knife edge. Set your orders and keep your money safe. The big move we’re waiting for is the day 87,300 is firmly underfoot. $BTC