Put simply, SPCX is leasing 80,000 cell towers, and AT&T got knocked down 5.6% in a day.
I'm on the bull side—Musk is serious this time.
Here's what happened. Let's start with the numbers.
Bloomberg broke the news Thursday night: SpaceX is in talks to lease at least 80,000 cell towers, with tower giant Crown Castle among the companies involved.
How many is 80,000? There are 158,500 purpose-built towers in the U.S. Musk is asking for half of them in one go.
The goal is clear: build America's fourth-largest wireless carrier from scratch and go head-to-head with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
Friday's close: AT&T plunged 5.6% to a three-month low, T-Mobile fell 5%, Verizon dropped 1.6%, and Deutsche Telekom followed with a 3.2% decline.
Meanwhile, the tower companies were popping champagne: Crown Castle rose 11.6%, American Tower gained 4.9%, and SBA climbed 4.6%.
And SpaceX itself? Up 1.7%. That may not look like much, but the day before it had just been hammered down 9.1%.
On the perpetuals side, SPCX is currently at 147.94, with a 24-hour high of 150.02 and low of 144.38. Trading volume is 822 million, the funding rate is 0.017%, and there’s basically no leverage in the market.
The bull case.
On October 8, SpaceX spent $8 billion on low-band spectrum. Musk's exact words were, “This is the last piece of the spectrum puzzle.”
The FCC also approved a new generation of 15,000 Starlink satellites that can connect directly to phones. On a conference call, Musk said himself, “We also need to build out terrestrial networks. There needs to be connectivity everywhere SpaceX and Starlink are allowed to operate.”
Even Bernstein admits competition could still be years away, but the mere expectation of “Musk making a move” is enough to leave the entire telecom sector gasping for air.
The last time spectrum news broke, on October 9, AT&T and Verizon posted their biggest single-day drops in more than 20 years. That shows just how spooked the market is.
The bear case deserves a hearing too.
Building a carrier is a capital-intensive slog. Negotiating to lease 80,000 towers is one thing; rolling out the network will take years of spending.
SpaceX is currently valued at $2 trillion. Even a 1.7% move means tens of billions in market cap, so it could take a while for the good news to fully play out.
And after yesterday's 9.1% plunge, today's 1.7% gain didn't even recover half the loss. Technically, 150 is still a hurdle.
My take.
I'm on the bull side for one reason: Musk tends to get done what he says he'll do. Rocket reusability, Starlink, electric cars—weren't they all laughed at in the beginning?
This time it's not just talk. The full package is in place: spectrum, satellites, FCC approval, and tower negotiations. The puzzle is complete; all that's left is to act.
The telecom giants have fallen this hard because Wall Street has already started voting with its feet and pricing in a “fourth carrier.”
Scenarios.
If it holds above 150, that means it has cleared the 150 hurdle. Next up: 155 to 160. A retest of the 162 high from the October 21 merger-news rally isn't out of the question either.
If it falls below 144.4—the 24-hour low—then today's 1.7% gain was just a one-day bounce. The tower story loses steam for now, and 140 is the next level to watch.
What I'm planning to do.
I took a small position. If it drops below 144.4, I'm out. I'm not going to sit around waiting.
Put simply, at this level you're betting on how quickly Musk acts. If I'm wrong, I'll take the loss. That's all there is to it.
Pick a side, everyone:
Will SpaceX really become the fourth-largest carrier within three years and crush AT&T and the others, or will the carriers team up and strike back, leaving Starlink as nothing more than a signal booster?
I'm betting on the first outcome. I believe in Musk's ability to execute. What about you?
$SPCX $TSLA $BTC
#SpaceX #USStocks
I'm on the bull side—Musk is serious this time.
Here's what happened. Let's start with the numbers.
Bloomberg broke the news Thursday night: SpaceX is in talks to lease at least 80,000 cell towers, with tower giant Crown Castle among the companies involved.
How many is 80,000? There are 158,500 purpose-built towers in the U.S. Musk is asking for half of them in one go.
The goal is clear: build America's fourth-largest wireless carrier from scratch and go head-to-head with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
Friday's close: AT&T plunged 5.6% to a three-month low, T-Mobile fell 5%, Verizon dropped 1.6%, and Deutsche Telekom followed with a 3.2% decline.
Meanwhile, the tower companies were popping champagne: Crown Castle rose 11.6%, American Tower gained 4.9%, and SBA climbed 4.6%.
And SpaceX itself? Up 1.7%. That may not look like much, but the day before it had just been hammered down 9.1%.
On the perpetuals side, SPCX is currently at 147.94, with a 24-hour high of 150.02 and low of 144.38. Trading volume is 822 million, the funding rate is 0.017%, and there’s basically no leverage in the market.
The bull case.
On October 8, SpaceX spent $8 billion on low-band spectrum. Musk's exact words were, “This is the last piece of the spectrum puzzle.”
The FCC also approved a new generation of 15,000 Starlink satellites that can connect directly to phones. On a conference call, Musk said himself, “We also need to build out terrestrial networks. There needs to be connectivity everywhere SpaceX and Starlink are allowed to operate.”
Even Bernstein admits competition could still be years away, but the mere expectation of “Musk making a move” is enough to leave the entire telecom sector gasping for air.
The last time spectrum news broke, on October 9, AT&T and Verizon posted their biggest single-day drops in more than 20 years. That shows just how spooked the market is.
The bear case deserves a hearing too.
Building a carrier is a capital-intensive slog. Negotiating to lease 80,000 towers is one thing; rolling out the network will take years of spending.
SpaceX is currently valued at $2 trillion. Even a 1.7% move means tens of billions in market cap, so it could take a while for the good news to fully play out.
And after yesterday's 9.1% plunge, today's 1.7% gain didn't even recover half the loss. Technically, 150 is still a hurdle.
My take.
I'm on the bull side for one reason: Musk tends to get done what he says he'll do. Rocket reusability, Starlink, electric cars—weren't they all laughed at in the beginning?
This time it's not just talk. The full package is in place: spectrum, satellites, FCC approval, and tower negotiations. The puzzle is complete; all that's left is to act.
The telecom giants have fallen this hard because Wall Street has already started voting with its feet and pricing in a “fourth carrier.”
Scenarios.
If it holds above 150, that means it has cleared the 150 hurdle. Next up: 155 to 160. A retest of the 162 high from the October 21 merger-news rally isn't out of the question either.
If it falls below 144.4—the 24-hour low—then today's 1.7% gain was just a one-day bounce. The tower story loses steam for now, and 140 is the next level to watch.
What I'm planning to do.
I took a small position. If it drops below 144.4, I'm out. I'm not going to sit around waiting.
Put simply, at this level you're betting on how quickly Musk acts. If I'm wrong, I'll take the loss. That's all there is to it.
Pick a side, everyone:
Will SpaceX really become the fourth-largest carrier within three years and crush AT&T and the others, or will the carriers team up and strike back, leaving Starlink as nothing more than a signal booster?
I'm betting on the first outcome. I believe in Musk's ability to execute. What about you?
$SPCX $TSLA $BTC
#SpaceX #USStocks