Ethereum upgrade delay and ETF outflows weigh on the market, leaving the DeFi rebound without follow-through
1. The Glamsterdam fork on Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet has been delayed due to a security flaw in Gas changes. ChainSecurity identified 13 real-world cases that could leave contracts stuck in a failed state. Ethereum is down 2.6% over seven days, more than four times Bitcoin’s 0.6% decline. Expectations for the upgrade have shifted from a short-term tailwind to a major headwind this cycle.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $636 million in net outflows in a single day, led by IBIT’s $254.1 million, wiping out all inflows from the previous day. Total market capitalization fell 2.6% over 24 hours to $2.76 trillion, while the Fear and Greed Index stood at a neutral 50. This points to a lack of buying demand rather than panic selling, with Bitcoin holding near the upper end of its intraday range.
3. DefiLlama shows stablecoin supply down $2 billion over seven days, DeFi total value locked down $1.93 billion over 24 hours, and DEX trading volume down 11.2%. Basis Desk whale flows show net outflows from exchanges of just $2 million, but Tether saw $29 million in net inflows while USD Coin had $31 million in net outflows. This reflects rotation within stablecoins rather than new capital entering the market, leaving the DeFi sector without enough buying support.
4. Ethena is up 1.2% over 24 hours, closing at the 77th percentile of its intraday range. It is at the 54th percentile of its seven-day range and the 23rd percentile of its 30-day range, and remains below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. After gaining 135.2% over 90 days, its recovery from the pullback remains incomplete. Its FDV-to-market-cap ratio is 1.1x, with 89.4% of tokens in circulation, so dilution pressure is limited. The funding rate is near neutral at 0.0010%, and open interest is $101 million, indicating that leverage is not crowded. However, average seven-day volume is down 29.4%, showing that the rebound is happening on declining volume.
5. Assessment: The upgrade delay and ETF outflows are weighing on the market, and the rebound is mainly a low-volume recovery, so chasing prices higher is inadvisable. Invalidation conditions: Bitcoin turns positive over 24 hours and ETFs return to net inflows; Ethena rises above its 20-day moving average on increased volume and holds above the upper end of its seven-day range.
#ENA #AI #RWA
1. The Glamsterdam fork on Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet has been delayed due to a security flaw in Gas changes. ChainSecurity identified 13 real-world cases that could leave contracts stuck in a failed state. Ethereum is down 2.6% over seven days, more than four times Bitcoin’s 0.6% decline. Expectations for the upgrade have shifted from a short-term tailwind to a major headwind this cycle.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $636 million in net outflows in a single day, led by IBIT’s $254.1 million, wiping out all inflows from the previous day. Total market capitalization fell 2.6% over 24 hours to $2.76 trillion, while the Fear and Greed Index stood at a neutral 50. This points to a lack of buying demand rather than panic selling, with Bitcoin holding near the upper end of its intraday range.
3. DefiLlama shows stablecoin supply down $2 billion over seven days, DeFi total value locked down $1.93 billion over 24 hours, and DEX trading volume down 11.2%. Basis Desk whale flows show net outflows from exchanges of just $2 million, but Tether saw $29 million in net inflows while USD Coin had $31 million in net outflows. This reflects rotation within stablecoins rather than new capital entering the market, leaving the DeFi sector without enough buying support.
4. Ethena is up 1.2% over 24 hours, closing at the 77th percentile of its intraday range. It is at the 54th percentile of its seven-day range and the 23rd percentile of its 30-day range, and remains below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. After gaining 135.2% over 90 days, its recovery from the pullback remains incomplete. Its FDV-to-market-cap ratio is 1.1x, with 89.4% of tokens in circulation, so dilution pressure is limited. The funding rate is near neutral at 0.0010%, and open interest is $101 million, indicating that leverage is not crowded. However, average seven-day volume is down 29.4%, showing that the rebound is happening on declining volume.
5. Assessment: The upgrade delay and ETF outflows are weighing on the market, and the rebound is mainly a low-volume recovery, so chasing prices higher is inadvisable. Invalidation conditions: Bitcoin turns positive over 24 hours and ETFs return to net inflows; Ethena rises above its 20-day moving average on increased volume and holds above the upper end of its seven-day range.
#ENA #AI #RWA